Concerned Teacher

Jul 13, 2020
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Hi all,

I appreciate any knowledge you have on the following topic. According to the CDC, around 2,000 Americans have died from Covid-19 in the 35-44 age group. This is in comparison to only 234 influenza deaths for that same age group.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data.

To me, that seems like a pretty alarming amount of deaths, but maybe I am missing something? Does anyone know if there is an estimate for number of infected people in that age range (thousands, millions)? I believe the CDC reported something like a .3% infection fatality rate overall.

Just curious what your thoughts were on the fatality risks to infected people in that age range. Trying to get a grip on this. I appreciate any feedback!
 
Jul 2, 2020
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I think covid-19 is very serious and all steps should be taken to social distance wear masks etc

however it can be controlled and probably eleminated by medicine and quarantine etc Taiwan and New Zealand have shown this

Its very hard to get a proper picture of what the covid data really means because its been political from the start in the USA and Europe (as well as China)

Data

You mentioned the CDC influenza death data.

I suggest it is important to compare influenza deaths this year to previous years. If these figures are roughly the same then the data may be ok. However if influenza deaths this year are much lower then it would imply that influenza deaths are now being classified under covid-19 which has been allowed.


Death reporting changes in April allowed a death to be registered as covid rather than another illness even if there is no covid testing done and a person died of something else such as a heart attack etc. I provide the links on that at the end. These changes have been swept under the carpet.

60+ Age Group Data Factors

The covid % death rate in the 60+ group is clearly much higher than the rest of the population particularly if there is another coexisting condition.

Data on Younger People

The data shows younger people have a lower the % death rate

That does not mean young people wont get ill which may have serious long term health consequences - info on brain and lung damage seems to be coming up now

So everyone should fight covid if only for their own health even if they dont care about the greater good

Data Overview

Looking at a CDC % avg death rate for the whole population is a bit meaningless if you want to understand your own age group death risk.

Added to this the % death rate may be overstated for reasons set out below and not discussed much


Death Rate

Infection fatality rate is deaths in cases tested positive and cases that may or probably involve covid-19 (no testing proof required) divided by total of cases tested positive.

However it seems reasonably clear that the level of infection is much higher - many studies have shown this - the latest info I found easily is below and says covid infection (not death) could be up to 13 x more than is being reported via testing.

This means that in reality the % agerage death rate is probably the same as flu as covid is much more widely spread and not seasonal / continues in the summer so the absolute number of deaths will be higher but skewed to the 60+


The number of deaths in 100s or 1000s from covid-19 is probably not much higher than is being reported otherwise we would be seeing a much higher overall death rate in the country for all deaths compared to previous years which is not happening - yes the death rate is higher but not hugely higher. Ses data below



Covid-19 Reporting of Untested Deaths as Covid Deaths info below

The rules for what is classified as a covid death were widened in April to include anyone who had died and the Dr believes could have had covid even if they die of something else and no test has been carried out.

It is often not clear if the data is a possible covid death without testing or a death with a covid test

What this probably means is that people who would have died later of a heart attack died of the heart attack now brought on by covid so it was classified as a covid induced heart attack (without testing for covid etc). If this is correct in future years we may see a fall in heart attack rates because of covid deaths now etc - what does that really mean ?

The link below explains how probable deaths are included. There was a World Health Organization reporting change that brought in probable covid.

Why not split out the data by age group whether there was testing and what other major conditions were present or at least record and provide this data ?


A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19"



Other Comments

Taiwan and New Zealand have stopped covid other countries have had it under control but need to watch for flare ups. Vietnam with a 97 million population did a very good job of controlling covid until a recent flare up as has Sri Lanka.








New Jersey Data

I found this data which shows what has happened to the death rate over the initial stages of covid-19

New Jersey Death Data 2015 to July 2020


The population of NJ has been stable at around 8.8 to 9 million.

This data shows a big spike in death rates in April to 18,000 deaths per month up from a normal of about 6,000 then a return to 6,000 around June 2020 with July data showing around 5,500 deaths which is about 500 lower than in previous years - there may be data to update etc.

It will be useful to see if there are lower death rates in the months ahead and if population of New Jersey remains stable.
 
Last edited:
Mar 4, 2020
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I wouldn't trust any numbers. I believe we will find an over count. Call your doctor for advice. Buy one of those temp guns. Or maybe a temp bracelet. Start measuring yourself thru the day to get use to your daily/activity temperature variations.

Medical sensor bracelets for multiple measurements are cheap now. Under 100 bucks, and some even cheaper. Some even download daily data for your doctor. I swear I saw one bracelet that did just about everything except a urine test.

Monitor yourself at school. You should be able to detect a temperature quicker than anyone. Of course, other symptoms might precede a temp.
 

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