"That translates to a 1-in-284,000-year event. Yet here we are watching it unfold, one day at a time. This is deeply troubling."
So if the earth is 4.5 billion years old and has had measurable "climate" for over three billion years, per NASA, why is it "troubling" that this is happening again? If it's happened over 12,000 times throughout history, it would seem relatively normal.
I want to be clear, I am not a climate science denier or global warming denier etc. It's, of course, difficult to convey context or intent when writing like this. I am genuinely asking.
Although such an event should not be considered unprecedented in the history of the Earth, it is unprecedented in the history of human civilization.
Human beings are highly adaptable, BUT we have evolved to survive in a relatively narrow range of conditions.
The conditions under which
civilization has evolved to survive and thrive are narrower still.
The changes that are forthcoming as a result of our evolving climate (influenced to a large degree by human activity which is unprecedented in scope, scale, and nature in the history of our Earth) are likely to pose significant challenges to the survival and stability of human civilization, in ways that we are struggling to understand and almost certainly unprepared for.
It is also worth noting that saying this is
statistically a 1 in 284000 year event is different than saying this is
literally a 1 in 284000 year event.
These conditions are becoming and are likely to become more common.
The "1 in 284000" number is describing the statistical probability of finding a number 4 standard deviations off the average within the given data set. It's been a while since I took statistics in high school, so I'm sure someone else can explain that a little better.
Hope that helps.