Atlantic's hurricane alley is so hot from El Niño it could send 2024's storm season into overdrive

Apr 2, 2020
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"That translates to a 1-in-284,000-year event. Yet here we are watching it unfold, one day at a time. This is deeply troubling."

So if the earth is 4.5 billion years old and has had measurable "climate" for over three billion years, per NASA, why is it "troubling" that this is happening again? If it's happened over 12,000 times throughout history, it would seem relatively normal.

I want to be clear, I am not a climate science denier or global warming denier etc. It's, of course, difficult to convey context or intent when writing like this. I am genuinely asking.
 
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Jun 19, 2023
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"That translates to a 1-in-284,000-year event. Yet here we are watching it unfold, one day at a time. This is deeply troubling."

So if the earth is 4.5 billion years old and has had measurable "climate" for over three billion years, per NASA, why is it "troubling" that this is happening again? If it's happened over 12,000 times throughout history, it would seem relatively normal.

I want to be clear, I am not a climate science denier or global warming denier etc. It's, of course, difficult to convey context or intent when writing like this. I am genuinely asking.
Although such an event should not be considered unprecedented in the history of the Earth, it is unprecedented in the history of human civilization.
Human beings are highly adaptable, BUT we have evolved to survive in a relatively narrow range of conditions.
The conditions under which civilization has evolved to survive and thrive are narrower still.
The changes that are forthcoming as a result of our evolving climate (influenced to a large degree by human activity which is unprecedented in scope, scale, and nature in the history of our Earth) are likely to pose significant challenges to the survival and stability of human civilization, in ways that we are struggling to understand and almost certainly unprepared for.

It is also worth noting that saying this is statistically a 1 in 284000 year event is different than saying this is literally a 1 in 284000 year event.
These conditions are becoming and are likely to become more common.
The "1 in 284000" number is describing the statistical probability of finding a number 4 standard deviations off the average within the given data set. It's been a while since I took statistics in high school, so I'm sure someone else can explain that a little better.
Hope that helps.
 
Oct 29, 2023
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Feb 12, 2024
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People in the know say that the Pacific Ocean's Typhoon Alley is so cold from the drafts caused by El Nino that Hawaii COULD see icebergs forming in the next 10,000 years. I'm terrified of this prospect.:sneaky:
 
Apr 22, 2020
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Although such an event should not be considered unprecedented in the history of the Earth, it is unprecedented in the history of human civilization.
Human beings are highly adaptable, BUT we have evolved to survive in a relatively narrow range of conditions.
The conditions under which civilization has evolved to survive and thrive are narrower still.
The changes that are forthcoming as a result of our evolving climate (influenced to a large degree by human activity which is unprecedented in scope, scale, and nature in the history of our Earth) are likely to pose significant challenges to the survival and stability of human civilization, in ways that we are struggling to understand and almost certainly unprepared for.

It is also worth noting that saying this is statistically a 1 in 284000 year event is different than saying this is literally a 1 in 284000 year event.
These conditions are becoming and are likely to become more common.
The "1 in 284000" number is describing the statistical probability of finding a number 4 standard deviations off the average within the given data set. It's been a while since I took statistics in high school, so I'm sure someone else can explain that a little better.
Hope that helps.
Another way to say this is, that assuming baseline (1991-2020) background conditions remained constant, this would be a 1-in-284,000-years event. But the fact that this seemingly very unlikely event is happening now, is strong evidence that those background conditions are rapidly changing.
 
Apr 22, 2020
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"That translates to a 1-in-284,000-year event. Yet here we are watching it unfold, one day at a time. This is deeply troubling."

So if the earth is 4.5 billion years old and has had measurable "climate" for over three billion years, per NASA, why is it "troubling" that this is happening again? If it's happened over 12,000 times throughout history, it would seem relatively normal.

I want to be clear, I am not a climate science denier or global warming denier etc. It's, of course, difficult to convey context or intent when writing like this. I am genuinely asking.
12,000 times over that period is as "normal" as once every 284,000 years. As long as the entire existence of homo sapiens. If the two numbers give different impressions, it's because we can hardly conceptualize a quantity like "3 billion," which your 12,000 comes from. Better to express it in terms that we have a better chance of relating to.
 
Apr 22, 2020
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seems to be the same thing every year.. more doom and gloom predictions that very seldom come to fruition. want to impress me? tell me when (within a few days ) the next earthquake over 7.0 will be.
From the article: "Five storms have blown at an unprecedented 192 mph (309 km/h) or more this decade, leading scientists to propose a new "Category 6" strength to describe them." And these storms have caused unprecedented billions in property damage. Just ask the insurance companies.

But we haven't learned how to predict earthquakes yet, so climate predictions are useless ...