23 March 2024

Space Weather

Two sunspots erupted at once on March 23rd, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. A bright halo CME is now heading for Earth. Models suggest it could reach our planet during the early hours of March 25th, bringing a chance of strong geomagnetic storms and mid-latitude auroras.

See: https://spaceweather.com/
Apr 24, 2023
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Maybe a real one this time and not a simulated one from the Russians?

Here's a good rule of thumb: If the SWPC says there is a solar flare coming, there isn't one and if they say that they have no reason to believe one is coming, that's the time when you should be concerned.

I have written a bit on the topic of using quake activity to anticipate flares. The current quake map seems to suggest that we're not going to see anything dangerously strong in terms of solar flares.

Quake activity will actually subside globally to well below-average in the day or two leading up to flare events for reason that reduced fusion activity in the Sun leads to decreased induction in the Earth's core which, in turn, reduces magma generation and pressure. That reduced fusion activity also has as a byproduct a weakened solar magnetic field which, in turn, enables plasma to escape.

One day, SWPC will recognize that I'm right about this and some schmuck over there will take all the credit.