WHO thinks it knows where COVID-19 originated

Nov 12, 2020
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There are serious, reasonable concerns about the WHO's latest investigative methodology, the withholding of documents by China, and the overt political/financial influence by China on the WHO. I for one, of many, am inclined to dismiss the forth coming WHO report out of hand. The paramount issue in identifying the source of the covid-19 pandemic is to get precautions and protocols put in place world wide in order to prevent a recurrence. Given the nature and mutations of this virus, a wildlife source/outbreak seems pointed unrealistic.
 
Jul 24, 2020
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Given the nature and mutations of this virus, a wildlife source/outbreak seems pointed unrealistic.
They are entirely consistent with an emergence in nature; since the outbreak of sars-cov-2, a number of viruses with genetic similarities to sars-cov-2 have been discovered in the South Asian region, which is helping to illustrate how sars-cov-2 possibly evolved in bats. For example, two of the discovered viruses share parts of the furin cleavage site that stands out in sars-cov-2 which might help understanding the evolutionary path to its appearance in the pandemic virus. (Link)
 
Nov 12, 2020
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As a "hardened cynic", I'm a believer in multiple "Open Kimono" investigations by fully independent agencies. Probabilistic judgements are used before an event, like a horse race. After the horse race, facts surpass probabilities. N.B.: In situations, where politics, politicians and governments have to contend with horrific consequences only fully independent investigations, if allowed, MAY determine causality. In such "charged" situations, Occam's Razor is a dull tool.
 
Jul 2, 2020
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I agree transparency and openness ...... its time to open up ..........Prof Shi won international acclaim for finding the source of the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak

Its best that all info on how the Covid-19 virus may have developed and spread should be disclosed so it can be used in research and as part of producing effective treatments and stopping future mutation cycles back into animals / people etc.

The Chinese/WHO now say it is likely that Covid-19 came via Chinese wild life farms.... but no precursor virus has been found despite massive testing and research probably far beyond anything done before or the 2002 SARS or later Ebola virus outbreak reviews both of which it is claimed found the origins....

Please note China previously denied staff at Wuhan Institute of Virology Lab had got sick in the Autumn of 2019 with Covid-19 like symptoms.

China now admits in what is called an unexpected development (confirmed on America’s NBC News by one of the WHO advisers who went to Wuhan in 2021 - Professor Koopmans) that at least two Wuhan Institute of Virology lab specialists fell ill in the autumn of 2019 with Covid-19 like symptoms. See Daily Mail link later

How many lab workers got ill in 2019?

Given how China has withheld information and made false statements its really a good time to release all the information it has otherwise people will continue to believe China is hiding important data that could possibly help with a Covid-19 treatment.

At the very least it will help make clear what should be released quickly next time to stop future pandemics and help with this one

Jamie Metzl a WHO Adviser on the Human Genome Editing governance report due in 2021 calls for transparency on Covid-19 origins - it would help all of humanity...


 
Nov 12, 2020
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Folks: Don't "doodly putz" over the latest WHO report or the opaque politics regarding the origin of this pandemic and whether the Sars-Cov-2 was genetically lab modified. GET THE VACCINE as soon as you and your family can. Check with your health care provider if concerned. For the next several months we will all have to follow the social distancing and mask wearing guidelines, vaccinated or not. The politicians and their "flunkies" will dance, spin and dither; remember such when you vote. Otherwise, until then keep safe via guidelines and vaccination.
 
Jul 2, 2020
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Vaccine is the only solution being offered so it seems the best way to go - however there should be a plan B using alternative drugs such as Ivermectin

As far as the origins of the Virus goes it is important to not let the politics of a convenient origin blind us to the real possible alternatives.

Failure to find the real and proven origins or consider the likely alternatives will mean that the lessons will not be learned and so future pandemics will occur in similar ways or this pandemic will keep cycling around

Part of finding the proven origins means the release of all data for the proven origin and the alternatives.

Questions and comments.....

Who knew what was going on and when........ what does this say about the origins ?

On Dec 12th 2019 (YES 2019) Prof Baric of the University of North Carolina signed an update to an existing agreement to immediately start work in Dec 2019 on an existing FDA and Moderna coronavirus vaccine....

See later below links which include the 150 page agreement between the NIH / FDA, Moderna and University of NC and Prof Baric of UNC updated signature page 105?.....

Very strange timing....

1. this is before any formal Covid-19 news in China

2. given the FDA had previously stopped funding such coronavirus vaccine research around 2010 according to Prof Petrovsky and others who received FDA funding and previously developed various successful animal coronavirus vaccines

Other Points....

Will China release human and animal blood tests for 2019 and 2020 - starting with just the Wuhan area to be reviewed ?

Will the Wuhan Lab scientists Covid-19 and other SARS test results now be released given China has now confiremd some had Covid-19 symptoms in the Autumn of 2019 ?

Will the Moijang Miners SARS and other medical data and tests results now be released to see what SARS virus killed them - Prof Shi confirmed that tests were done again in 2020 for Covid-19?

Will China now provide real proof about what happened to the WIV scientist often referred to as patient zero who then disappeared in 2019? and whose data was later erased from the WIV website.

The Chinese say patient zero is working elsewhere but will not say where or provide evidence she is alive ?


See independent NGO researcher Dr Jonathan Latham PhD link above for more info but below is a partial quote.

Dr Latham and his colleagues background is in university virology and GMO research

He has brought to public attention a number of serious health issues that were being deliberately hidden. Dr Latham has no political background and criticized the actions of all USA political parties / governments

China’s research on SARS-related coronaviruses

Consider the following list of 18 publication titles, many accepted in prestigious journals, from between 2005 and the start of the pandemic in late 2019.

They are all authored by Prof Zheng-li Shi [of WIV / Wuhan].

These eighteen research papers constitute the main focus of her published output.

What they have in common is that all use the phrase “SARS-like coronavirus” or, later, “SARS-related coronavirus” or a close variant (all are bolded below [see original link above]).
These phrases should be understood as technical terms.

They denote viruses extremely closely related to SARS and only distantly related to other coronaviruses:

‘Bats Are Natural Reservoirs of SARS-like Coronaviruses‘ (2005);
‘Full-length genome sequences of two SARS-like coronaviruses in horseshoe bats and genetic variation analysis’ (2006);
‘Evidence of the recombinant origin of a bat severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronavirus and its implications on the direct ancestor of SARS coronavirus’ (2008);
‘Difference in Receptor Usage between Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Coronavirus and SARS-Like Coronavirus of Bat Origin’ (2008);
‘Virus-like particles of SARS-like coronavirus formed by membrane proteins from different origins demonstrate stimulating activity in human dendritic cells’ (2008);
‘Immunogenicity difference between the SARS coronavirus and the bat SARS-like coronavirus spike (S) proteins’ (2009);
‘Intraspecies diversity of SARS-like coronaviruses in Rhinolophus sinicus and its implications for the origin of SARS coronaviruses in humans’ (2010);
‘Immunogenicity of the spike glycoprotein of Bat SARS-like coronavirus‘ (2010);
‘Bat severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronavirus ORF3b homologues display different interferon antagonist activities’ (2012);
‘Identification of immunogenic determinants of the spike protein of SARS-like coronavirus‘ (2013);
Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor (2013);
‘A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence’ (2015);
‘Bat severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronavirusWIV1 encodes an extra accessory protein, ORFX, involved in modulation of the host immune response’ (2016);
Longitudinal surveillance of SARS-like coronaviruses in bats by quantitative real-time PCR’ (2016);
‘Cross-neutralization of SARS coronavirus-specific antibodies against bat SARS-like coronaviruses‘ (2017);
‘Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus’ (2017);
‘Serological evidence of bat SARS-related coronavirusinfection in humans, China’ (2018);
‘Geographical structure of bat SARS-related coronaviruses‘ (2019).

What this list demonstrates is that, while Zheng-li Shi at the WIV focused on virus collection, above all, she dedicated her research to understanding zoonotic spillovers to humans of one species alone: the SARS-related coronaviruses.

So while most discussions of a potential lab escape have mentioned that SARS-CoV-2 emerged within commuting distance of the WIV and that researchers at the WIV worked on bat coronaviruses, none have mentioned that the coincidence is much greater than that.

Zheng-li Shi concentrated, especially with her potentially highly risky molecular research, on the particular species of coronavirus that is responsible for the pandemic.
There is a simple reason for this focus.

The original SARS outbreak in 2002-04 had a major impact in China. Finding the origin, explaining SARS and its symptoms, and preventing a repeat all became major research priorities for Chinese scientists.

To be sure, Zheng-li Shi published papers on other coronavirus species over that same time-period, for example on MERS, and even some on non-coronaviruses; but these articles tended to be one-offs and co-authorships with other labs. The large majority of her output and the dominant theme of her research was collecting and manipulating SARS-related coronaviruses to determine the potential for human spillover.

So, if one accepts as reasonable the assumptions made above, the probability of Wuhan being the site of a natural SARS-related coronavirus outbreak is obtained by multiplying 1 in 630 by 1 in 28. The chance of Wuhan hosting a SARS-related coronavirus outbreak is thus 17,640–1.

The criticism will doubtless be made that the geographic and the phylogenetic evidence described here are circumstantial–merecoincidences. But critiquing evidence as circumstantial is based on a common logical misconception–that circumstantial evidence represents a special category of evidence.

As the philosopher David Hume first argued, all evidence of causation is composed of coincidences. All an observer can do is to add up the coincidences until they surmise that the threshold of reasonable doubt has been surpassed. Conclusions are always provisional, bu
t in the absence of evidence to the contrary, anyone open to persuasion ought at this point to conclude that a probability of 17,640–1 far exceeds that threshold.

[Please draw your own conclusions about how useful this info is or read more in the Dr Latham link above]

Additional Comments

Many agree that it is best that all info on how the Covid-19 virus may have developed and spread should be disclosed so it can be used in research and as part of producing effective treatments and stopping future mutation cycles back into animals / people etc.

The Chinese/WHO now say it is likely that Covid-19 came via Chinese wild life farms.... but no precursor virus has been found despite massive testing and review of 100,000s blood tests of wild and farmed animals and humans, almost certainly far greater than for any previous pandemic.

There are serious questions about the connections to Prof Shi, Wuhan / the WIV Lab and/or China for the WHO members who went to Wuhan in 2021 particularly Peter Daszak who is also a member of the LANCET Covid-19 Commission

There are long term working relationships 10-15 years Prof Shi with Peter Daszak and Prof Baric

Prof Baric the godfather of chimeric bat coronavirus research and long term collaborator with WIV and Professor Shi is a member of the LANCET Covid-19 Commission. Baric and Shi developed a chimeric bat coronaviruses back to 2008 and in 2014/15 one that could infect humans.

Shi and Daszak did the same with 8 chimeric bat coronaviruses in 2017 - 2 of which were successfully developed to infect human ACE2 cells.

Will the genetic code for these chimeric and the original bat coronaviruses be released ?

We need answers to many questions .... for example

On Dec 12th 2019 Prof Baric of the University of North Carolina signed an updated 2015 agreement to immediately start work in Dec 2019 on an existing FDA and Moderna coronavirus vaccine....see later links...... very strange timing..... given the FDA previously had stopped funding such coronavirus vaccine research around 2010 according to Prof Petrovsky and others who received FDA funding for and developed various coronavirus vaccines for SARS, MERS etc

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/LawrenceSellin/status/1365518656998936579


https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-93590396/WHO-set-reject-Wuhan-lab-link-Covid-outbreak-instead-point-source-animal-market.html

https://www.thesun.ie/news/6693484/covid-threat-china-usa-medical-supplies-cover-up-claims/

https://forums.livescience.com/threads/new-coronavirus-raccs203-closely-linked-to-sars-cov-2-is-discovered-in-bats-in-thailand-great-headline-but-what-does-this-mean.4971/

https://forums.livescience.com/threads/what-is-the-mathematical-probability-of-a-natural-zoonotic-coronavirus-outbreak-starting-in-wuhan-it-could-be-no-better-than-17-640–1.5087/#post-18112



We know that Prof Shi from WIV is credited as having found the 2002-2004 SARS origin virus in the Yunnan area also where RaTG13 was found once the nearest virus known to Covid-19. See link to BBC article in the livescience link to virus RacCS203 in the post above.

The new bat coronaviruses recently disclosed seem mostly unhelpful as a link to Covid-19....

No animal or bird populations etc have been found with these viruses or anything close.....

Pangolins and mink appear to have caught Covid-19 from humans ..... and their is some evidence that Covid-19 is not well suited to infect pangolins.. see later comments.....

The natural evolutionary path for the nearest Covid-19 virus RaTG13 (found in the Yunnan Mojiang Mines in 2013) is 20 to 50 years to get to Covid-19
Despite 100,000s of blood tests of wild and domestic animals in 2020 and looking back to 2019 and before neither RaTG13 nor any other virus closer to Covid-19 has ever been found in any bat or animal population or single host.

(RaTG13 was only found in the Moijang Mine in 2013 in one bat sample which now no longer exists - and its origins and chain of custody are questionable. Prof Shi initially denied having worked on it before 2020 but it later became clear that RaTG13 had been worked on in 2013 with results posted in 2016 and again later results posted in 2017/2018 - about the time Prof Shi and Peter Daszak worked on developing Chimeric Viruses)

These Mojiang Mines were also where miners died after getting infected with an unknown bat linked Coronavirus which Prof Shi later admitted she and others searched for in the area.

The miners medical tests and virus RaTG13 were worked on in the Prof Shi / WIV / Wuhan Lab at around the same time 2012 - 2013 as shown by copies of now deleted Chinese research papers.

The other Asian Coronaviruses recently mentioned are even more genetically remote to Covid-19 than RaTG13 to explain or provide a Covid-19 route

Prof Shi is cited as having found where the 2002-2004 SARS came from - the Yunnan area where the Mojiang Mine is located.....

We know the bat origin viruses are too distant to be a direct source host of any near Covid-19 virus and research shows that the pangolin studies linking them to Covid-19 are deeply flawed as they all referred to one sample from smuggled pangolins but made it appear that multiple samples were taken in different populations. It appears likely pangolins caught Covid-19 from smugglers in China not the other way round.

The Daily Mail has quoted scientists as saying about the new bat coronaviruses found that.... see post on RacCS203 above for links and info

"RacCS203 is thought to be unable to infect people as it can not bind to the ACE2 receptor on human cells, Covid-19's gateway into the body.

"However, antibodies circulating in the blood of infected bats and pangolins were found to be effective at neutralising the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This biological paradox indicates bat-based coronaviruses can not, as standard, infect humans, experts speculate."
 
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Jul 2, 2020
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20th March 2021 LANCET published a study that shows that between 622,800 to 968,800 people in Wuhan had COVID-19 by April 2020

A separate US University study shows the first case of Covid-19 emerged around mid-October 2019

LANCET Study

Thirty authors from China co-researched the status of the Covid-19 virus infection in Wuhan for a Lancet study

The research is based on 9,542 members from 3,556 families who live in 100 communities from different districts in Wuhan city, the capital of Hubei Province and ground zero of the virus outbreak. Blood samples were collected on April 14 and 15, 2020.

The result showed that 6.92 percent of the population had been infected with the virus, with 82.1 percent of the infected ones being asymptomatic carriers. Among the infected group, 39.8 percent of them had neutralizing antibodies in their blood which meant they were immune to the virus after being infected.

Between 622,800 to 968,800 people in Wuhan had COVID-19 by April 2020, and the first case emerged between mid-October and mid-November 2019, according to two new studies.

“6·92 percent of a cross-sectional sample of the population of Wuhan developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, with 39·8 percent of this population seroconverting to have neutralising antibodies,” wrote the first research group on The Lancet on Thursday.

“Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei Province,” the second research group posted on Science magazine on March 18.

The results of both research groups revealed data that was different from the Chinese regime’s disclosures.

The Chinese regime recognizes the first COVID-19 case as occurring on Dec. 31, 2019, and admitted human-to-human transmission of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, on Jan. 20, 2020. The regime finalized the number of infections in Wuhan on April 17, 2020, announcing a total of 50,333 people having been infected, which is less than 10 percent of th e analyzed figure.

In the past few months, people from different countries have criticized the Chinese regime for its delayed report, accusing the regime of underreporting the pandemic, leading to the CCP virus spreading to other countries.

Five researchers at the Universities of California, San Diego, and Arizona published the Science magazine study about the world’s first possible COVID-19 case, studied through molecular dating tools and epidemiological simulations.

The study points out that the CCP virus is a zoonotic coronavirus, meaning it’s transmitted to humans from an unknown animal host. From over one dozen studies they conducted in the past year, the study says it is unlikely that the Huanan Seafood Market—which the Chinese regime claims was ground zero—is the venue where the animal transmitted the virus to humans.

“We used Bayesian phylodynamics to reconstruct the underlying coalescent processes,” the researchers explained, saying they analyzed 583 CCP virus complete genomes that were sampled in China.

Combining the CCP virus’ genetic diversity study with the earliest reported cases and other study’s results about the CCP virus spreading in Wuhan before the lockdown on Jan. 23, 2020, the researchers estimate that the first COVID-19 case emerged as early as October 2019.


LANCET PUBLISHED STUDY LINK

The Lancet

Seroprevalence and humoral immune durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Wuhan, China: a longitudinal, population-level, cross-sectional study


Universities of California, San Diego, and Arizona published Science magazine STUDY LINK


 
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