Way more people may have gotten coronavirus than we thought, small antibody study reveals

Apr 1, 2020
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This article is another confirmation that there are two versions of this virus.

One is the respiratory version where the virus containing droplets are inhaled, it infects the lungs, symptoms are severe often putting victim in in intensive care, or even causing death.

The other is the gastrointestinal version where virus is ingested (oral transmission) where victim has relatively mild nausea or diarrhea or stomach pain and recovers without serious consequences.

Obviously, until the virus has completely run its course (12 to 18 months) we are going to have to do everything we can to avoid inhaling it. This means practice of social/physical distancing, any wearing of masks in situations where distancing is not practical.

Good hygiene (washing of hands before preparing or eating food), and cleaning and sanitation of food handling surfaces and utensils to prevent spread of any food borne illnesses and cross contamination of course continues to be important as always.

Some easing of the more onerous business shutdowns, travel restrictions, and stay-at-home precautions if everybody got serious about distancing and/or wearing of masks should be possible, but so far large percentage of our societies seems to be incapable of even practicing these simple measures. SAD!

But if we can't fix stupid, maybe its time to ease restrictions a bit and let Darwinian selection take care of some of the more stupid aspects of our gene pools.
 
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Dec 7, 2019
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Quite a change from the hysterical panic inspired by totally false predictions of the CDC, Fauci and others, that 2.2 million Americans might die from this... whatever you want to call it. But in the end it is hardly more deadly than ordinary flu, even as they try to fraudulently boost up the number of deaths due to the Chi-Com virus, by counting in those who die of other diseases. The testing nevertheless indicates we have reached herd immunity, and all the hysterical and totalitarian lockdowns and anti-social distancing, etc., should end immediately. The impending total destruction of the US economy is now the biggest risk, with a very high mortality as it proceeds. End It Now.
 
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Apr 7, 2020
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I was very hopeful this study's results would be true, but reading the critiques by posters on a medical website, I am not at all sure. It is looking like there are two big problems with it
1. The false positive rate for this antibody test is too high.
2. The participants were not randomly selected, they were allowed to put themselves in the study. The critics pointed out there is evidence from social media that many participated in the study to get a free test, because they suspected they had been infected. '
If they suspected correctly, then a much higher percentage of these people were actually infected than the population at large. How much higher we do not know, but it basically invalidates the study.
 
Apr 7, 2020
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Doing my own calculations, based on assumptions the case fatality rate is 3% and it takes 5 weeks to die, and it was so contagious that it doubled every few days -and the number of deaths attributed to it was accurate, there would be many times the cases given in the CDC stats which are based on positive test results. It looked like the number of actual cases might be 10 to 20 times that reported to me based on those assumptions- I could be way off, but it is worth pointing out here - the numbers given for cases "1,000 cases to date in Silicon Valley (Santa Clara County California) were so low they were just ridiculous.

This is very important - a person looking at the reported numbers might think "1,000 cases in a county with 1 million people means any one person I encounter has only a 1 in 1,000 chance of being infected why should I worry, the odds are way on my side" - but the true number was so, so, so much higher.

This very misleading way of reporting probably led many to be careless and get the virus.
 
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Apr 14, 2020
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This article is another confirmation that there are two versions of this virus.

One is the respiratory version where the virus containing droplets are inhaled, it infects the lungs, symptoms are severe often putting victim in in intensive care, or even causing death.

The other is the gastrointestinal version where virus is ingested (oral transmission) where victim has relatively mild nausea or diarrhea or stomach pain and recovers without serious consequences.

Obviously, until the virus has completely run its course (12 to 18 months) we are going to have to do everything we can to avoid inhaling it. This means practice of social/physical distancing, any wearing of masks in situations where distancing is not practical.

Good hygiene (washing of hands before preparing or eating food), and cleaning and sanitation of food handling surfaces and utensils to prevent spread of any food borne illnesses and cross contamination of course continues to be important as always.

Some easing of the more onerous business shutdowns, travel restrictions, and stay-at-home precautions if everybody got serious about distancing and/or wearing of masks should be possible, but so far large percentage of our societies seems to be incapable of even practicing these simple measures. SAD!

But if we can't fix stupid, maybe its time to ease restrictions a bit and let Darwinian selection take care of some of the more stupid aspects of our gene pools.
I don't think this confirms anything. It just shows that with an unreliable antibody test you get unexpected results. Lt's wait until we get some proper studies with validated tests before drawing any conclusions.
 
Apr 7, 2020
10
3
35
Quite a change from the hysterical panic inspired by totally false predictions of the CDC, Fauci and others, that 2.2 million Americans might die from this... whatever you want to call it. But in the end it is hardly more deadly than ordinary flu, even as they try to fraudulently boost up the number of deaths due to the Chi-Com virus, by counting in those who die of other diseases. The testing nevertheless indicates we have reached herd immunity, and all the hysterical and totalitarian lockdowns and anti-social distancing, etc., should end immediately. The impending total destruction of the US economy is now the biggest risk, with a very high mortality as it proceeds. End It Now.
James - your claims above are not well based in the known facts. Please read up some more, but also, check my Comments on this article, which will explain there are a lot of problems with this study - and also, PLEASE READ THE STUDY OR IT"S DATA AT LEAST - the numbers found in the study were something like 5% of the participants had antibodies - that is nowhere near "herd immunity" - And MOST of the country has lower known rates of virus than Santa Clara County has - so, they would have LESS than 5% of people with antibodies- this is ASSUMING the study is valid at all - we are nowhere near herd immunity and to get there, if we were at 5% immnity, we would need to have 20 times the infections - which at the current time would also mean 20 times the deaths- not 35,000, but 700,000 or more - to get to it - but in reality, since this study is wrong, it would be millions. Please do some research.
 
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Dec 7, 2019
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I concluded herd immunity had arrived several weeks back, based upon early readings of the wildly exaggerated and horrible figures out of London, followed by severe reductions, and about which Fauci and friends were dissembling. To go from 2.2 million down to ~60,000 deaths is quite a failure on the part of conventional models, and should bring distrust about what they forecast for the near future.

A simple, though error-filled computation of one infected person infecting one additional person per day, over a month, while the other infected person(s) likewise infect one each additional person per day, you wind up with a rapidly expanding population of infected people, reaching over a billion infected people within 30 days. Of course that is unrealistic as you quickly run out of non-infected people to infect, long before reaching a billion. But consider we had a quarter-million people arriving into the USA from China (as new arrivals or returns from family visits) BEFORE Trump shut the border. How many of them were infected? Nobody knows, but if only 10% were infected, that's 25,000 infected people, spreading across the land. By the one-person-daily preliminary calculation above, we could expect a tremendous number of people infected over the period from November through January. And aside from the problems you note in the study under question, the numbers of infected-asymptomatic should be even larger still, maybe 10, 100 or 1000 times as many, percent-adjusted for the full population.

Now, I'm retired from university teaching of such as population dynamics and environmental issues, including a bit of epidemiology, but such as I describe above could be organized into yet another computer model, and with some careful presumptions, my intuition suggests both high and low numbers of infected-asymptomatic-immune people to be even greater than what that study concluded. Which means,

1) the death rates of the Wu-Flu are an even smaller percentage of those who got infected.
2) we closed the border after "the horses left the barn" (or the quarter million ran into the barn) so to speak.
3) all the isolations, distancing, masking and shut-downs happened only AFTER the major sweep and spread of infections took place.

An incredible number of people were already infected by the end of January, but the vast majority recovered or never showed symptoms.

This suggests, strongly, that herd immunity has been upon us probably since early February, that no vaccine is necessary (and who in their right mind would take it, after all the despotic revelations about Fauci and Bill Gates, their wish for "vaccine certificates" and such), and that the numbers from the CDC cannot be trusted anymore (they began including deaths from all different causes into WuFlu category, without any testing, with money offered to hospitals for doing so). From this it is very clear, the nation should emerge from lock-downs immediately, to face the very real threat and danger now posed by 23 million new unemployed, with massive small business bankruptcies, home forclosures, a new group of impovershed people, and all the morbidity and mortality that attends to economic devastation and depression.

Also the unmasking of so many tin-pot dictators at our state and local levels, wishing to punish people for ordinary social behavior, is disgusting, and yet another reason to remove this issue from the hands of the medical and virological professions, who have done a grave disservice to the nation, and the world.

I predict, a year from now, the medical and academic professions, and the Communist Chinese, will have HELL to pay for this disaster they foisted upon the nation. If this had been treated more rationally like prior corona viruses from China, in a manner similar to how Sweden did (no lockdowns or ubiquious anti-social distancing, masking, etc.), we would be at about the same situation in terms of deaths as we are today. There are no overwhelmed hospitals, with plenty of available beds, the ventillator hysteria calmed down when thousands of them remain unused, and so forth. And there is NO evidence that this reduction is due to any of the lockdowns, distancing or masking. The nation got a huge dose of infections spreading across the land by the end of January, and somewhat similar to other flu episodes. It killed a lot of older people with serious pre-existing conditions, but not in numbers significantly larger than last year's flu season, which claimed ~80,000. What remains unusual is only that young people and children remained largely unscathed, which is not so typical of infectious epidemics.
 
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Apr 7, 2020
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I am not disagreeing with everything you wrote but I can not accept two of your conclusions. If there had actually been herd immunity back in January, the extreme demand for hospital beds should not be taking place now in New York City and nearby New Jersey - and yet we are told it is. Even if every death was attributed to Covid 19 - every car accident victim who lose a limb - pick any cause of death you like, putting the wrong cause of death down on paper will not make hospitals fill up. If there was essentially no epidemic, the hospitals would not be overloaded, would they?
Also, if the epidemic had almost silently run it's course just a few months back, so that herd immunity is in effect near Stanford, then their study should be indicating much higher numbers of people with antibodies, but they claim only 5%.. Even if that number is 100% correct and their estimates of case fatality rate are correct, 1/50th of previously reported - that might be a reason to reopen the country, but it is not anywhere near hear immunity.
 
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Dec 7, 2019
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Are the hospital beds truly all filled up? I don't belive that is correct, although NYC is certainly the worst-case location by which to judge. Even the error-prone NY Times reports the situation today is quite different from early April.
NYC had plenty of "non-infected" by which the numbers could continually build for a longer time than elsewhere, thereby yielding worst-case symptoms later than other places. In California, which got the brunt of the travellers from China, reached its peak much sooner. Interesting conversation, but I got to go. Like all others, I look at the data and make my best evaluation of it. Let's hope I'm correct, as it would be better for all. Cheers, JD
 
Apr 19, 2020
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Shame on you for daring comparing the mortality of seasonal influenza and COVID-19 based on the results of this "study".
The sample used for the COVID-19 data in this case is not representative, the test is not approved, and furthermore, unlike your mortality calculation based on this "study", the mortality of influenza is not assessed based on the number of possibly seropositive people in a population, but on the number of clinical cases, which are often not even confirmed by a PCR test. It means that many of the fatalities attributed to the seasonal influenza have not been confirmed by a PCR-test, just as little as a portion of the registered deaths attributed to coronavirus
Stop comparing apples and oranges, and jumping to conclusions based on this.
 
Jan 4, 2020
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This article is another confirmation that there are two versions of this virus.

One is the respiratory version where the virus containing droplets are inhaled, it infects the lungs, symptoms are severe often putting victim in in intensive care, or even causing death.

The other is the gastrointestinal version where virus is ingested (oral transmission) where victim has relatively mild nausea or diarrhea or stomach pain and recovers without serious consequences.

Obviously, until the virus has completely run its course (12 to 18 months) we are going to have to do everything we can to avoid inhaling it. This means practice of social/physical distancing, any wearing of masks in situations where distancing is not practical.

Good hygiene (washing of hands before preparing or eating food), and cleaning and sanitation of food handling surfaces and utensils to prevent spread of any food borne illnesses and cross contamination of course continues to be important as always.

Some easing of the more onerous business shutdowns, travel restrictions, and stay-at-home precautions if everybody got serious about distancing and/or wearing of masks should be possible, but so far large percentage of our societies seems to be incapable of even practicing these simple measures. SAD!

But if we can't fix stupid, maybe its time to ease restrictions a bit and let Darwinian selection take care of some of the more stupid aspects of our gene pools.
Thank you for your very thoughtful post. The only additional variable I'd like to suggest is the ability of an individual's body/immune system to rally against either of these variations. I'm pretty sure that I've had and am recovering from a mild case of COVID-19 (I live in Los Angeles, which is a rather people-heavy area). My age places me at high risk, but except for a few age-related deficiencies (osteoporosis controlled via medication, some mild cognitive lapses), I am in very good health: no obesity, high blood pressure, smoking-related ling issues). I also have been adhering closely to the most stringent of the precautions advised by our governor and mayor. It's a PITA to have to restrict my walks to our parking lot, wear a mask outdoors, and step into the street to avoid non-compliant neighbors when I walk down to the market, or wait four days for grocery delivery. But I'm alive for my offspring in other towns, and I am not a burden on our hospitals or testing centers, because I've stayed relatively healthy into my 70s and am observing all precautions. And I agree with you: those who are too stupid or selfish to adheed to the recommendations of the scientists and medical professionals deserve to collect their Darwin awards and get out of the gene pool.
 
Mar 16, 2020
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35
I was very hopeful this study's results would be true, but reading the critiques by posters on a medical website, I am not at all sure. It is looking like there are two big problems with it
1. The false positive rate for this antibody test is too high.
2. The participants were not randomly selected, they were allowed to put themselves in the study. The critics pointed out there is evidence from social media that many participated in the study to get a free test, because they suspected they had been infected. '
If they suspected correctly, then a much higher percentage of these people were actually infected than the population at large. How much higher we do not know, but it basically invalidates the study.
 
Apr 1, 2020
18
5
35
Thank you for your very thoughtful post. The only additional variable I'd like to suggest is the ability of an individual's body/immune system to rally against either of these variations. I'm pretty sure that I've had and am recovering from a mild case of COVID-19 (I live in Los Angeles, which is a rather people-heavy area). My age places me at high risk, but except for a few age-related deficiencies (osteoporosis controlled via medication, some mild cognitive lapses), I am in very good health: no obesity, high blood pressure, smoking-related ling issues). I also have been adhering closely to the most stringent of the precautions advised by our governor and mayor. It's a PITA to have to restrict my walks to our parking lot, wear a mask outdoors, and step into the street to avoid non-compliant neighbors when I walk down to the market, or wait four days for grocery delivery. But I'm alive for my offspring in other towns, and I am not a burden on our hospitals or testing centers, because I've stayed relatively healthy into my 70s and am observing all precautions. And I agree with you: those who are too stupid or selfish to adheed to the recommendations of the scientists and medical professionals deserve to collect their Darwin awards and get out of the gene pool.
You are right some people's immune systems are better than others, everything else being equal.
But for everybody, it will be harder for their immune systems to respond to an inhaled virus that affects our lungs (blood anti-bodies can't get at it) than an ingested virus that principally passes through the ACE receptors in our mouths and throats into our blood streams where our immune system anti-bodies can quickly respond to them.
Sounds like you were smart enough to carefully protect your lungs from the virus by physical distancing, wearing a mask outdoors, and limiting trips to public areas like grocery stores. So I expect you likely got the virus by eating some contaminated food you got delivered, or that came in contaminated packaging that contaminated your hands and was then transferred to something you put in your mouth.
Your symptoms were mild, as I would expect would be the case for infection by ingestion, you survived and recovered, and may now even have some immunity to protact you from further infection, congratulations!
But, I would recommend continuing with the precautions to have been taking to avoid inhaling, the respiratory infection version of this virus, because even though you may now have some antibodies in your blood, they might not be enough to to keep it out of your lungs if you inhale it, and the inhaled version of this virus is terrible and life threatening!
 
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Jan 4, 2020
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You are right some people's immune systems are better than others, everything else being equal.
But for everybody, it will be harder for their immune systems to respond to an inhaled virus that affects our lungs (blood anti-bodies can't get at it) than an ingested virus that principally passes through the ACE receptors in our mouths and throats into our blood streams where our immune system anti-bodies can quickly respond to them.
Sounds like you were smart enough to carefully protect your lungs from the virus by physical distancing, wearing a mask outdoors, and limiting trips to public areas like grocery stores. So I expect you likely got the virus by eating some contaminated food you got delivered, or that came in contaminated packaging that contaminated your hands and was then transferred to something you put in your mouth.
Your symptoms were mild, as I would expect would be the case for infection by ingestion, you survived and recovered, and may now even have some immunity to protact you from further infection, congratulations!
But, I would recommend continuing with the precautions to have been taking to avoid inhaling, the respiratory infection version of this virus, because even though you may now have some antibodies in your blood, they might not be enough to to keep it out of your lungs if you inhale it, and the inhaled version of this virus is terrible and life threatening!
Thank you very much!! Yes, I still am staying home and wearing a mask even to go to the mailbox. The accounts I've read about how the virus attacks the lungs and then proceeds to shut down other organs are hair-raising. I hope that everyone will take your advice so that we can end this atrocious siege ASAP. Thanks and best of health to you, Brian.
 
Apr 22, 2020
18
2
35
This article is another confirmation that there are two versions of this virus.

One is the respiratory version where the virus containing droplets are inhaled, it infects the lungs, symptoms are severe often putting victim in in intensive care, or even causing death.

The other is the gastrointestinal version where virus is ingested (oral transmission) where victim has relatively mild nausea or diarrhea or stomach pain and recovers without serious consequences.

Obviously, until the virus has completely run its course (12 to 18 months) we are going to have to do everything we can to avoid inhaling it. This means practice of social/physical distancing, any wearing of masks in situations where distancing is not practical.

Good hygiene (washing of hands before preparing or eating food), and cleaning and sanitation of food handling surfaces and utensils to prevent spread of any food borne illnesses and cross contamination of course continues to be important as always.

Some easing of the more onerous business shutdowns, travel restrictions, and stay-at-home precautions if everybody got serious about distancing and/or wearing of masks should be possible, but so far large percentage of our societies seems to be incapable of even practicing these simple measures. SAD!

But if we can't fix stupid, maybe its time to ease restrictions a bit and let Darwinian selection take care of some of the more stupid aspects of our gene pools.
There is absolutely nothing in this article, or anywhere else, that suggests a "gastrointestinal version" of this virus.
 
Apr 22, 2020
18
2
35
I concluded herd immunity had arrived several weeks back, based upon early readings of the wildly exaggerated and horrible figures out of London, followed by severe reductions, and about which Fauci and friends were dissembling. To go from 2.2 million down to ~60,000 deaths is quite a failure on the part of conventional models, and should bring distrust about what they forecast for the near future.

A simple, though error-filled computation of one infected person infecting one additional person per day, over a month, while the other infected person(s) likewise infect one each additional person per day, you wind up with a rapidly expanding population of infected people, reaching over a billion infected people within 30 days. Of course that is unrealistic as you quickly run out of non-infected people to infect, long before reaching a billion. But consider we had a quarter-million people arriving into the USA from China (as new arrivals or returns from family visits) BEFORE Trump shut the border. How many of them were infected? Nobody knows, but if only 10% were infected, that's 25,000 infected people, spreading across the land. By the one-person-daily preliminary calculation above, we could expect a tremendous number of people infected over the period from November through January. And aside from the problems you note in the study under question, the numbers of infected-asymptomatic should be even larger still, maybe 10, 100 or 1000 times as many, percent-adjusted for the full population.

Now, I'm retired from university teaching of such as population dynamics and environmental issues, including a bit of epidemiology, but such as I describe above could be organized into yet another computer model, and with some careful presumptions, my intuition suggests both high and low numbers of infected-asymptomatic-immune people to be even greater than what that study concluded. Which means,

1) the death rates of the Wu-Flu are an even smaller percentage of those who got infected.
2) we closed the border after "the horses left the barn" (or the quarter million ran into the barn) so to speak.
3) all the isolations, distancing, masking and shut-downs happened only AFTER the major sweep and spread of infections took place.

An incredible number of people were already infected by the end of January, but the vast majority recovered or never showed symptoms.

This suggests, strongly, that herd immunity has been upon us probably since early February, that no vaccine is necessary (and who in their right mind would take it, after all the despotic revelations about Fauci and Bill Gates, their wish for "vaccine certificates" and such), and that the numbers from the CDC cannot be trusted anymore (they began including deaths from all different causes into WuFlu category, without any testing, with money offered to hospitals for doing so). From this it is very clear, the nation should emerge from lock-downs immediately, to face the very real threat and danger now posed by 23 million new unemployed, with massive small business bankruptcies, home forclosures, a new group of impovershed people, and all the morbidity and mortality that attends to economic devastation and depression.

Also the unmasking of so many tin-pot dictators at our state and local levels, wishing to punish people for ordinary social behavior, is disgusting, and yet another reason to remove this issue from the hands of the medical and virological professions, who have done a grave disservice to the nation, and the world.

I predict, a year from now, the medical and academic professions, and the Communist Chinese, will have HELL to pay for this disaster they foisted upon the nation. If this had been treated more rationally like prior corona viruses from China, in a manner similar to how Sweden did (no lockdowns or ubiquious anti-social distancing, masking, etc.), we would be at about the same situation in terms of deaths as we are today. There are no overwhelmed hospitals, with plenty of available beds, the ventillator hysteria calmed down when thousands of them remain unused, and so forth. And there is NO evidence that this reduction is due to any of the lockdowns, distancing or masking. The nation got a huge dose of infections spreading across the land by the end of January, and somewhat similar to other flu episodes. It killed a lot of older people with serious pre-existing conditions, but not in numbers significantly larger than last year's flu season, which claimed ~80,000. What remains unusual is only that young people and children remained largely unscathed, which is not so typical of infectious epidemics.
Nonsense. Herd immunity is not deduced from comparisons of model predictions, it's a function of the percentage of the population who have attained immunity. There are no results anywhere near the numbers that would be needed to make such a claim.

You ought to update your language, too. The Chinese are no more Communist than the Russians are. "Communist Chinese" makes you sound like some unreconstructed 80-year-old cold warrior still living in the '50s.
 
Apr 1, 2020
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There is absolutely nothing in this article, or anywhere else, that suggests a "gastrointestinal version" of this virus.
Gastrointestinal virus are found in stools, there are many credible reports of Covid-19 being found in stools. Some people only get an upset stomach and a bit of nausea, symptoms typical of a gastrointestional virus, others almost die of lung infections, typical of a respiratory virus. This virus can be very infectious. Article reports way more people have got it than were detected by testing or self reporting. Why would some cases be very severe and others benign unless they symptom outcomes were related to a difference, most likely path of infection given the clear evidence this virus can present in either mucu or stools. If the pieces fit?
 
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Sep 30, 2020
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No, I think none of you know more about the cronavirus more than me. I'm come from china. This cronavirus is not as easy to deaft as you think. Bros! you should wear N95 face-muffles, not face masks! You Americans don't know how dangerous this virus is. It can even be spreaded by aerogel ! Keep fit and drink hot water, this will keep you healthy in some sort of ways, and do exercises! Hope your countries get well from the cronavirus.
 
Apr 12, 2020
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No, I think none of you know more about the cronavirus more than me. I'm come from china. This cronavirus is not as easy to deaft as you think. Bros! you should wear N95 face-muffles, not face masks! You Americans don't know how dangerous this virus is. It can even be spreaded by aerogel ! Keep fit and drink hot water, this will keep you healthy in some sort of ways, and do exercises! Hope your countries get well from the cronavirus.
Seriously, aerogels are used in imaging devices, optics, and light guides and is a material for filtration due to its high surface area and porosity, to be used for the removal of heavy metals so just what are you talking about? Hot water does help you poop for sure but warm water or room temperature is best. The WHO advises a mask made of "at least three layers of different material" in order to be effective but also said that they should not give people a false sense of protection "Masks on their own will not protect you from Covid-19," so not even your suggestion of face mask (yes it is a mask also https://www.amazon.com/n95-mask/s?k=n95+mask&page=3) is a save all either. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/corrigendum-to-ig-2020-4-ipc-masks-2020-06-05-pp-15-16-2020-06-06-e.pdf?sfvrsn=c5992b89_2. Just because the virus comes from your country does not mean you know it best.
 
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