Scale of human-caused climate change today is unprecedented over millennia, according to UN report

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The scale of human-caused climate change is said to be the 150% increase in the CO2 in the atmosphere since pre-industrial time...the oxidation of carbon. Of course that's unprecedented. What's also unprecedented is that the increase in the global mean temperature anomaly is only 6%. A climate emergency?
 
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What's also unprecedented is that the increase in the global mean temperature anomaly is only 6%. A climate emergency?
The computer models from the 90s onwards have predicted pretty well the outcome we would expect in the future,

As computer power, knowledge and data has increased the future predictions can be more accurate whilst also retrospectively applying to previous positions.

We are not acting upon the position today, but more the position that is being accurately predicted for the future.

In the day-to-day lives we can easily see changes occurring rapidly... I miss snowball fights (UK) with my children as I had with my father; the water level in dams is incredibly low (USA); Siberian wild fires; Greek wildfires; daffodils flowering in December (UK); 2no. category 5 hurricanes in a short space of time (USA)..
Then looking at paintings and accounts... I find it amusing that ice could take the weight of people with ice fairs on the Thames (UK); there was forests between towns (UK) and so on...

Do you deny the climate is changing?
 
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One thing that really hits home for me is an atlas and climate book that my Granddad bought me for school in the 1980s for home use as there was only one to share in class.
It had the average June/ July temperature as 16degC for the UK rising to about 17degC in the South... No teacher, parent questioned this so I can only assume it was roughly accurate....
 
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No, I do not deny that the long-term weather is changing. I just provided the amount of that change. Very little. The ensemble of climate models cannot predict with any confidence what Earth's natural variability will do...the jet streams, the ENSOs, the volcanic activity are each unpredictable. The models were not able to predict that last 20 years after describing the the 1997-98 El-Nino and La-Nina as a tipping point. Historical data will show that the 1920s and 30s were as warm or warmer than today's values.
 
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Historical data will show that the 1920s and 30s were as warm or warmer than today's values.
I would be interested in any link you have for this claim.

I did find this which refers to Greenland's glaciers but they go on to say the situation in 2007 wasx worse from their dedicated research-

 
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The models were not able to predict that last 20 years after describing the the 1997-98 El-Nino and La-Nina as a tipping point.
I would be interested in your source for this claim...
I did however find the following which includes "Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior "; "Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. "

I wonder if you took a newspaper article that cherry-picked research for sensationalism.

 
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I would be interested in any link you have for this claim.

I did find this which refers to Greenland's glaciers but they go on to say the situation in 2007 wasx worse from their dedicated research-

Drinkwater, 2006 wrote: "Ecosystem changes associated with the warm period included a general northward movement of fish. Boreal species of fish such as cod, haddock and herring expanded farther north while colder-water species such as capelin and polar cod retreated northward. The warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to constitute the most significant regime shift experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century."

October, 1922: "The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto un-heard-of high temperatures in that part of the earth's surface." ..."With the disappearance of white fish and seal has come other life in these waters. This year herring in great shoals were found along the west coast of Spitzbergen, all the way from the fry to the veritable great herring. Shoals of smelt were also met with.”

Europe in the 1920s was hot and dry … Weather of 1921…press comments outside the US: (In the US 1921 was the warmest year on record and it followed 1917 only four years earlier… the coldest year on record)
 
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I would be interested in your source for this claim...
I did however find the following which includes "Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior "; "Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. "

I wonder if you took a newspaper article that cherry-picked research for sensationalism.

Usha Lee McFarling… LA Times February, 2000

“A new analysis by government scientists indicates Earth's climate is warming at an unprecedented rate, suggesting that the future impact of global warming may be more severe and sudden than predicted. Such a steep warming rate was not expected to occur until well into the 21st century, said Tom Karl, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climatologist who led the study. The trend probably would mean a continuation of the recent three-year string of steamy summers and mild winters seen by much of the nation, and perhaps increased flooding of low-lying areas. ``The next few years are going to be very interesting,'' Karl said. ``It could be the beginning of a new increase in temperatures.''

The next 20 years were indeed interesting. The climate paused. It was even given a name...the "hiatus". The temperature in 2016 was not as warm as it was in 1995.
 
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Weather of 1921…press comments outside the US:


BRITISH ISLES: London, July 10. England is sweltering and suffering the worst drought in a century. Today was the seventy-eighth virtually rainless day. For the third successive day temperatures have exceeded 100. The rainfall for the year is less than one-third normal to date.

FRANCE: Paris July 12. The Senate yesterday... cancelled the usual July 14 military review in Longchamps owing to the extreme heat.

GERMANY: Berlin, July 27. The potato crop has been the hardest hit of any in Germany by the prolonged dry weather..

RUSSIA: July 17. Twenty million persons are on the verge of starvation in drought-stricken sections of Russia, subsisting mainly on moss, grass and the bark of trees, according to the Vossische Zeitung, which quotes information from "reliable Russian sources." The parched earth, it is asserted, is opening up great crevices, and wells and rivers are drying up. Foliage is asserted to have withered on the trees, and a number of villages are reported on fire

SWITZERLAND: Zermatt: July 26. The heat has not greatly abated. On the summit of the Wellenkuppe, above Zermatt, and 12,830 feet high, the temperature at 10 o'clock in the morning has exceeded 100°F., and this despite the summit's being perpetually snow-clad… never do Alpinists remember such a variety of bright-colored butterflies in the high mountains as this year.

ITALY: July 30. The principal phenomenon...was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in its length and duration.

ITALY: Venice, July 30. The principal phenomena which prevailed [this week] was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in length of its duration. For several weeks the heat has increased until the past week the temperature has been up in the high nineties for day after day, and unofficial reports of over 100° have been frequent. The extremely high humidity has practically brought active business to a standstill, and has caused many deaths and heat exhaustions. The principal damage caused by the heat wave is the protracted period of drought which accompanies it. Agriculture is the chief sufferer from the heat and drought and no alleviation appears in sight. Weeks of cloudless scorching days have played havoc with the crops which were in progress when the heat wave began.

in the US 48 states, 1921 was the warmest year on record, until NOAA adjusted the official US Weather Bureau monthly temperatures downwards to make 2012 the warmest.
 
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No, I do not deny that the long-term weather is changing. I just provided the amount of that change. Very little. The ensemble of climate models cannot predict with any confidence what Earth's natural variability will do...the jet streams, the ENSOs, the volcanic activity are each unpredictable. The models were not able to predict that last 20 years after describing the the 1997-98 El-Nino and La-Nina as a tipping point. Historical data will show that the 1920s and 30s were as warm or warmer than today's values.
Drinkwater, 2006 wrote: "Ecosystem changes associated with the warm period included a general northward movement of fish. Boreal species of fish such as cod, haddock and herring expanded farther north while colder-water species such as capelin and polar cod retreated northward. The warming in the 1920s and 1930s is considered to constitute the most significant regime shift experienced in the North Atlantic in the 20th century."

October, 1922: "The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto un-heard-of high temperatures in that part of the earth's surface." ..."With the disappearance of white fish and seal has come other life in these waters. This year herring in great shoals were found along the west coast of Spitzbergen, all the way from the fry to the veritable great herring. Shoals of smelt were also met with.”

Europe in the 1920s was hot and dry … Weather of 1921…press comments outside the US: (In the US 1921 was the warmest year on record and it followed 1917 only four years earlier… the coldest year on record)
Thank you for the information... I had a read over the 1921 year which was very interesting.. I havent had time to fully fact-check what I came across but have the following-

"Parts of the United Kingdom also saw recording breaking heat, also part of a very warm year. The Central England Temperature for July was 18.5 °C (65.3 °F), which was the 8th warmest since records began in 1659 " however the [un]reliable source I used went on to say "The year of 1921 was the warmest on record at the time, but has since been eclipsed by 15 other years "

It must have been concerning at the time, and you highlight it as a major event affecting many aspects of life but it has moved from position 1 in 300 years to position 16 in 400 years which statistically highlights a concerning trend which we are seeing globally.

I also found this regarding the East side for Canada in 2020 which has many temperature records broken so although not a high recorded in duration as 1921, it is sporadic highs and then heat dropping off which is reflective of the concerns in the IPCC report 2013, updated 2021 on extremes.

 
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I'm unsure what your point is. You have asked twice about sources and I have provided information. My point is that there is little happening today that hasn't happened in the past when CO2 was at or near pre-industrial levels. There is nothing meaningful, other than to adapt to it, that can be done to lower the Earth's temperature. Rapid reductions in fuel emissions in transportation will create serious social and economic problems and the atmospheric CO2 will still continue to increase. Renewables don't transport anything. Biofuels are 90% fossil fuel and have to be recreated, regrown to keep the CO2 sequestered. Might as well ask everyone to buy dry ice every day.
 
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I'm unsure what your point is. You have asked twice about sources and I have provided information.
There wasnt a particular point... I thought we were debating.... From your first post you said "the global mean temperature anomaly is only 6%. A climate emergency? " which gives me the impression you do not believe there is a high possibility we have a Climate situation [amost certainly of our making].

Whenever a position is given such as "The models were not able to predict that last 20 years after describing the the 1997-98 El-Nino and La-Nina as a tipping point. " and I only find information contradicting the statement, then yes, I will require assistance in locating the information.

My point is that there is little happening today that hasn't happened in the past when CO2 was at or near pre-industrial levels. There is nothing meaningful, other than to adapt to it, that can be done to lower the Earth's temperature. Rapid reductions in fuel emissions in transportation will create serious social and economic problems and the atmospheric CO2 will still continue to increase. Renewables don't transport anything. Biofuels are 90% fossil fuel and have to be recreated, regrown to keep the CO2 sequestered. Might as well ask everyone to buy dry ice every day.
I do not believe there is anything in the recent past that is comparable and you have cited 1920 as an example which doesnt feature in the last 20 years of temperatures although was once the highest temperature in 300 years.

I do not understand why you so not see an issue that an unusual year you have as an example is now considered a cold year due to recent temperatures.

It seems your idea is to kick the can down the road as it is not your issue and someone else can pick it up... I do not want economic pain now but it doesnt bother me that it inevitably will happen for future generations (I am sure people in California, Turkey etc... will be happy to ride the issues out until they die).
The position reminds me of my friends that wouldnt put into a pension as "we might be hit by a bus tomorrow", but we are all heading to that time of life where we wonder what we will live on... Perhaps the idea is my friends rely on me for a drink as I was careful in my 20s, planning for the future.

Perhaps the thought of the rich in ventilated domed cities watching the less wealthy perish from their homes is the future you perceive.
 
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Back to the beginning. The global mean temperature in 1900 was ~14.0°C. In 2016 it was 14.83°C. Even if that small increase is evidence of a climate crisis and emergency, there is nothing that can be done to reduce it "urgently" or prevent it from increasing. Remember, the CO2 level in the late Eocene (~30 million years ago) was more than double today's level and the biota thrived. Land plants were lush, and marine life had no problem with the ocean's pH that was much lower than it is today. Human technological arrogance cannot even take out one part-per-million of the CO2 we have already added or are about to add. The global temperature in 1990 is almost the same as it was in 2016. Many people are unaware of the past climates and think that ours is unusual. They warn us that it's unprecedented in the speed but forget that it's not the rate but the total amount in the end that matters.
 
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Back to the beginning. The global mean temperature in 1900 was ~14.0°C. In 2016 it was 14.83°C. Even if that small increase is evidence of a climate crisis and emergency, there is nothing that can be done to reduce it "urgently" or prevent it from increasing.
A global average is simplistic with the term Global Warming being dropped due to being too vague.

Not all areas have changed equally as you will see from this link, "the annual average surface air temperature for land areas between 60°N and 90°N was 3.4°F (1.9°C) above the 1981–2010 average. "


Dont forget above you quoted "Weather of 1921…press comments outside the US: " and the impacts for one Summer of change, yet we have increased extremes and an increasing global average (specific geography aside).



Remember, the CO2 level in the late Eocene (~30 million years ago) was more than double today's level and the biota thrived. Land plants were lush, and marine life had no problem with the ocean's pH that was much lower than it is today.
Are you really comparing the evolution of species across millions of years during slow environmental changes to the rapd increase we are seeing today?
If my income was returned to 120% of what I earned in 1996 (including inflation increases), I would not be able to afford my mortgage... My life has grown in-line with my income and expecting to live as I did 25 years earlier with commitments is unrealistic without the intervention of experts to guide me through.

Many people are unaware of the past climates and think that ours is unusual. They warn us that it's unprecedented in the speed but forget that it's not the rate but the total amount in the end that matters.
Are you saying that scientists from around the world, with conflicting interests have not considered past climates.

I am not rally concerned if I would not have survived 30m years ago due to the conditions, but I am clearly concerned on the position that we could return to them leaving my future generations dead.
 
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Weather of 1921…press comments outside the US:

SWITZERLAND: Zermatt: July 26. The heat has not greatly abated. On the summit of the Wellenkuppe, above Zermatt, and 12,830 feet high, the temperature at 10 o'clock in the morning has exceeded 100°F., and this despite the summit's being perpetually snow-clad… never do Alpinists remember such a variety of bright-colored butterflies in the high mountains as this year.
Thank you for these.. I will investigate and add to my knowledge base.
 
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I have said everything that I can at this point. Provided references and numbers. You are free to ignore it. You can accept all of the dire model forecasts. without reservations. But, you are not free to continue to worry us if you have no realistic plan to address it. We already have more than our share of scary futures unless??? Unless what? Some plan with numerical quantification, amounts of CO2 to be removed, lengths of time, cost estimates per-ton taken out. Something real that can actually be accomplished to "save the planet". Arm-waving and hand-wringing is not going to help.
 
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I have said everything that I can at this point. Provided references and numbers. You are free to ignore it. You can accept all of the dire model forecasts. without reservations.
I thanked you above and gave a thumbs up for information that was new, and of interest to me so unsure where you believe I am ignoring anything comes from.

dire models aside I have my own local observations including:

Dont get to have snowball fights with my son like my father did with me as my location does not get the snow now.
I didnt know what feed to give my daffodils that flowered in December, twice in one year.
I have had to modify the guttering on my roof as the amount of rainwater flies over it in large storms.

But, you are not free to continue to worry us if you have no realistic plan to address it. We already have more than our share of scary futures unless??? Unless what?
You have never at any point asked me about a plan to address it, and this is the first time you highlight it? I have plenty of realistic plans BUT no population would accept them... The issue being a population complain about a problem... Problems inevitably cost money so a Government pledge to increase taxes to resolve... Opposition party says "no tax rises"... Opposition wins... Problems become worse, public complain about them more... and so on.
I find it funny the younger generations complain about the world us older generations are leaving them BUT they litter areas of beauty, run older cars over using bicycles, want to party in holiday locations and increase their carbon footprint to do this.
I do what I can, and feel conscious that I in the main am doing the best I can from an efficient manner without compromising my enjoyment of life.

That is a point I make in other forums... Put simply, people want funding for all eventualities (asteroid, pandemic, earthquake, tsunami) but will not accept a funding reduction against a "need now" item... The answer of taxing the rich merely increases inflation and impacts the poor anyway, or the rich move to a more tax friendly location meaning a country is in a worse position than they were before the tax increase.
 
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Your local observations are part of the problem, and that has been true for decades before you. read back about those 1920s and 1930s...

IS OUR CLIMATE CHANGING? A STUDY OF LONG-TIME TEMPERATURE TRENDS By J. B. KINCER Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C., Sept. 29, 1933

The present wide-spread and persistent tendency to- ward warmer weather, and especially the recent long series of mild winters, has attracted considerable public interest; so much so that frequently the question is asked “Is our climate changing?” Historic climate has always been considered by meteorologists and climatologists to be a rather stable thing, in marked contrast to geologic climate and to weather. We know there have been major geologic changes in climate and that weather, which is the meteorological condition at any particular time, or for a short period of time, such as a day or a month, is far from stable. Different kinds of weather come and go in comparatively brief, alternating spurts, as it were, or with short periods of irregular length-cool or cold, then warm, and vice versa-succeeding one another with a continuous recurrence that everyone takes for granted. However, an exhaustive statistical examination of these short- period temperature fluctuations fails to disclose any regularity that would afford a basis for forecasting future weather independent of the standard forecasting methods of the Weather Bureau, in which daily synoptic charts play an important role.
The phase of weather, or climate, that is attracting attention at the present time is not these short-period changes from warm to cool, and vice versa, for they are always present, but rather an apparent longer-time change to cool periods that seem to be less frequent and of shorter duration, and warm periods that are more pronounced and persistent. It has been thought that these fluctuations in temperature eventually neutralize one another, or smooth themselves out, when the long-time record is taken into account. In other words, meteorologists consider that climate, which is the normal run of the weather, for a long period of time, is a fairly stable thing, and that the average temperature for, say, any consecutive 20 years, selected at random from a long record, would not differ materially from that for any other consecutive 20 years so selected from that particular record. It appears, however, from the data presented with this study that the orthodox conception of the stability of climate needs revision, and that our granddad was not so far wrong, as we have been wont to believe, in his statements about the exit of the old-fashioned winter of his boyhood days. We are familiar with statements by elderly people, such as “The winters were colder and the snows deeper when I was a youngster”, and the like.

It might be stated here, however, that the abnormally warm weather experienced in general for a long time past does not mean that cold periods have been entirely absent. On the contrary, the records indicate that occasional brief spells of abnormally cool, or extremely cold, weather are characteristic of prevailing high-temperature trends. The cold winter of 1917-18 may be cited as an example, coming at a time when the long-time trend was running comparatively high, and also the fact that the lowest official temperature of record for the United States- 66°F. below zero-occurred in the Yellowstone National Park in February 1933.

In concluding this study,other weather features directly related to general temperature conditions were examined such as the occurrence of frost in the fall and spring, the number of days in winter with certain low temperatures, the occurrence of freezing weather in the fall and spring seasons, the length of the winters, as indicated by the first frost in fall and the last in spring, etc. All of these confirm the general statement that we are in the midst of a period of abnormal warmth, which has come on more or less gradually for many years.

Please note that was in 1933 and history shows that this "abnormal warmth" stopped around 1938 and the planet cooled for the next 37 years before rising again.


Clarence E. Koeppe Monthly Weather Review, December 1934

"The average person remembers the unusual weather which he has experienced, and forgets the normal course; and of this unusual weather, he is likely to remember only that which occurred most recently or which may have made some deep impression upon him at the time. If, as a child, he had an unusual experience of wading through snow up to his hips on Thanksgiving Day, that fact clings to his mind for years; and because no other Thanksgiving since then may have had snow that deep, he knows that the weather isn't what it used to be, notwithstanding that snow, hip deep, to a child might not need to be much more than a foot deep. It may seem, therefore, that the subject here treated would only be aggravating a situation already bad. That can hardly be the case, however, because probably no reader of this article has experienced as much as 5 percent of the phenomena or conditions which are portrayed. To the student of human climatology a knowledge of extremes of weather is quite as significant as a knowledge of averages, since the extremes cause so much property loss and human suffering."

So... it's deja-vu all over again today. And, just as it was back then, humans cannot change the course of Earth's natural variability to suit their theory and hypothesis.
This is not to say that we should be better stewards of our environment. Just avoid confusing it with our energy needs that release a trace gas that has had the beneficial effect of turning the Earth green as seen from satellites.
 
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Your local observations are part of the problem, and that has been true for decades before you. read back about those 1920s and 1930s...
I didn't say I based my position on local observations and actually said "dire models [quoted from your message] aside I have my own local observations including: ".

Over the years I have removed any prejudiced position from my arguments... As a child I remember running between thistles that towered over me whilst being unable to properly grasp the huge can of drink afterwards; I discredit this that I have grown.

This link summerises perfectly the reduction in snow days with factual recording-


From your last two posts you give the impression that models predict a dire position, but when I recall experiences that match previous predictions accurately, my memory is jaded.
 
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Yes, models today are like those from the 1960s and 70s...They predict a dire future (after several adjustments).

"We simply cannot afford to gamble against this possibility by ignoring it. We cannot risk inaction. Those scientists who say we should ignore the evidence and the theories suggesting Earth is entering a period of climatic instability are acting irresponsibly. The indications that our climate can soon change for the worse are too strong to be reasonably ignored."

Not 2021 but 1976... Lowell Ponte 45 years ago. THE COOLING.

What happened? The climate stopped cooling. The models were wrong.
Since the year 2000 the climate has paused. The models are still wrong.
NOAA reports the year-end data. 2020 was the same as 2016, and both are cooler that it was in 1990 and in 1995.
 
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Yes, models today are like those from the 1960s and 70s...They predict a dire future (after several adjustments).

"We simply cannot afford to gamble against this possibility by ignoring it. We cannot risk inaction. Those scientists who say we should ignore the evidence and the theories suggesting Earth is entering a period of climatic instability are acting irresponsibly. The indications that our climate can soon change for the worse are too strong to be reasonably ignored."

Not 2021 but 1976... Lowell Ponte 45 years ago. THE COOLING.

What happened? The climate stopped cooling. The models were wrong.
Since the year 2000 the climate has paused. The models are still wrong.
NOAA reports the year-end data. 2020 was the same as 2016, and both are cooler that it was in 1990 and in 1995.
The majority of Lowell Ponte's position has been debunked as follows:

It appears Ponte was influenced by a Newsweek cover, April 1975 titled "The Cooling World" which contained a section "after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth's climate seems to be cooling down. ", however this was a mis-reporting from the 1975 CLimate Change Report by the National Academy of Sciences NAS with the true wording "e do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course." - Essentially, as you will hopefully agree, computer power in 1976 was not sufficient to map the global weather, climate and calculations required for accuracy.

We have to remember that Ponte at the time was actually a journalist playing the popular role and if you acquire the book you refer to you will see there are no relevant references to scientific papers.

A major mis-quote by Ponte from the NAS report with the scientific community unanimous in saying there simply wasn't enough information to make the sort of predictions Ponte was making.

At the time Climatologists such as cycles, CO2, aerosols etc... they did not know which would be the dominant factor to affect the future climate which lead to the 1975 report recommending that, among other things, a national climactic research program be established.

The cooling trend referred to as he coming Ice Age although undr research is being linked with aerosol usage (link below and quote "All atmospheric aerosols scatter incoming solar radiation, and a few aerosol types can also absorb solar radiation. BC is the most important of the latter, but mineral dust and some OC components are also sunlight absorbers. Aerosols that mainly scatter solar radiation have a cooling effect, by enhancing the total reflected solar radiation from the Earth. "


We have now out out these damaging agents along with CFCs. The IPCC updated their position 2001 to reflect a reduction in aerosol usage.
 
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Are you denying that the climate warmed until 1938 and then cooled for the next 37 years.... because of volcanic aerosols??? Krakatoa was in 1883 and Mt. Agung was in 1963. During that time CO2 was rising. In 1938 Guy Callendar published his classic paper on the greenhouse effect and predicted that the atmosphere would get warmer in the next 20 years. It did not. The 1975 NAS report that you cited shows the result in Figure A.6.

Yes, in 1975 "we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course." That remains true today.
 
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Are you denying that the climate warmed until 1938 and then cooled for the next 37 years.... because of volcanic aerosols??? Krakatoa was in 1883 and Mt. Agung was in 1963. During that time CO2 was rising.
Where are you getting volcanic aerosols from? At no point have I referred to volcanic eruptions.

In 1938 Guy Callendar published his classic paper on the greenhouse effect and predicted that the atmosphere would get warmer in the next 20 years. It did not. The 1975 NAS report that you cited shows the result in Figure A.6.

Yes, in 1975 "we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course." That remains true today.
What a guy and far ahead of his time... If only he had been taken more seriously at the time he may have made discoveries that changed the world for the better, but onto the years 1938-1958...
I started drafting and grabbing references but found this link which describes the position far better than I would be able to... The quote "The mid-century cooling appears to have been largely due to a high concentration of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere, emitted by industrial activities..." and does go on to raise volcanic activity... I do not want to complicate the position with this.


The 'work' by the journalist Ponte mis-reporting scientific papers whilst avoiding the chance of challenging hopefully is closed as a poor source.

You are continuing to only reference single people.... My responses have been organisations and scientific communities whom are united on the problems we are heading.

One argument I get is a prediction that does not happen... In simplistic terms, if my bath drainage is blocked and the taps are on, I would be correct to say the bath will overflow at a point in the future if nothing is done... I may advise that turning the taps off and/ or unblocking the drainage will stop the flood.
Lets say I turn off the taps and unblock the drains before there is an issue...

WOuld it be correct to say my fear of flooding was wrong due to it never having happened?
 

SHaines

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The scale of human-caused climate change is said to be the 150% increase in the CO2 in the atmosphere since pre-industrial time...the oxidation of carbon. Of course that's unprecedented. What's also unprecedented is that the increase in the global mean temperature anomaly is only 6%. A climate emergency?
The article covers how hundreds of scientists reviewed more than 14,000 studies tracking climate change evidence worldwide and are reporting that human behaviors are responsible for many of the issues that are being experienced around the world as a result.

Responding to the totality of the article with a mention that 6% doesn't sound like a big number is honestly baffling. You can't get full context of all the experts studying all the data and just say that a number of your choosing isn't big enough, so people should ignore the science.

October, 1922: "The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto un-heard-of high temperatures in that part of the earth's surface."
Quotes from sailor journals that state the water in a part of the ocean seems warmer is also not a great source to cite for tracking climate change throughout human history. Climate change is a real thing that is happening because of human behaviors.

Many factors weigh into temperatures of specific areas at specific times. What climate scientists are trying to explain is that behind all the temperature variations people see day in and out, there is this other influence that is growing stronger and starting to have very real and outsized impact on the world around us.
 
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