Predicting Solar Storms

Jul 29, 2021
84
4
55
There has been an important statement made from the University of Michigan scientists for improvement of the solar storms predictions.

In the list of the most hazardous global impacts (climate change, space junk handling, pandemics) the sun is the most powerful aspect that might bring crucial situation changes any time. And it is the least predictable, as we know.

The level of modeling technologies and monitoring has a huge potential of improvement together with today’s technological boost.
Data is not giving enough explanation every time. Even mathematically, the trend of e.g. climate change with current spike may not be predicted correctly.

An optimistic urge to keep eyes better open.

 
Jan 27, 2020
208
81
680
Lariliss, you are absolutely correct when you say that the sun, our closest star, has the greatest carbon neutral impact on our climate and our day.

There are only two carbon neutral energy sources, however, with extractable potentials exceeding 15 TW*: solar and wind. Though geothermal has significant theoretical potential, its extractable potential is much less because it is mostly in the form of “low-grade” heat, with low conversion efficiency into chemical fuel. Also, though ocean waves has significant theoretical potential, its extractable potential is much less because it is in the form of mechanical power, with low conversion efficiency into chemical fuel.

Finally, there is only one source with technical potential safely exceeding 15 TW: solar. Though wind has significant extractable potential, its technical potential is much less, in large part because much of its power resides geographically over the relatively inaccessible deep oceans. The same is true for solar, but because its extractable potential is so huge its land-based technical potential remains large.

Sunlight has by far the highest theoretical potential of the earth’s renewable energy sources.
The solar constant (the solar flux intercepted by the earth) is 1.37 kW/m . The cross-sectional
area of the earth intercepting this flux at any instant is πr2 (where r = 6,378 km is the earth’s
radius), but the surface area of the earth over which this flux is averaged over time is 4πr . Hence,
the time-and-space-averaged solar flux striking the outer atmosphere of the earth is (1.37 kW/m2)
/ 4 = 342.5 W/m . In addition, enroute to the earth’s surface, about 30% of this flux is scattered,
and about 19% is absorbed, by the atmosphere and clouds (Wallace 1977, pp. 320-321). Hence,
the average flux striking the earth’s surface is 342.5 W/m · (1-0.49) = 174.7 W/m2.

This theoretical potential represents more energy striking the earth’s surface in one and a half
hours (480 EJ)67 than worldwide energy consumption in the year 2001 from all sources combined
68 (430 EJ) .

* TerraWatt definition is - a unit of power equal to one trillion watts.
 
Jul 29, 2021
84
4
55
Finally, there is only one source with technical potential safely exceeding 15 TW: solar.
I agree with these statements. Thank you for the precise numbers, as always.
For the recent 10 years technology made a huge leap from local heliostats in the most solar activity/angle/atmosphere clarity areas to huge GW power plants fast emerging around the globe.
In this case solar storms might not bring a significant fluctuations, but accumulation of the solar power should have two major impacts:
1. Less fossil burning and reflections back to the atmosphere.
2. Probably more cooling natural effects influence, that is neglected while showing numbers of temperature rise trend due to human activities. Meaning, that we should count both with the climate change predictions.

NASA and ESA, Chinese and private companies missions show more attention to the Earth surveillance with a good potential for effective data collection and post-processing.
 
Jan 27, 2020
208
81
680
Lariliss;

Always remain inquisitive...

Screen Shot 2021-08-26 at 11.42.20 AM.png
Courtesy of: SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER; NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Solar radiation storms occur when a large-scale magnetic eruption, often causing a coronal mass ejection with an associated solar flare, accelerates charged particles in the solar atmosphere to very high velocities. The most important particles are protons which can get accelerated to large fractions of the speed of light. At these velocities, the protons can traverse the 150 million km from sun to Earth in just 10’s of minutes or less. When they reach Earth, the fast moving protons penetrate the magnetosphere that shields Earth from lower energy charged particles. Once inside the Earth's magnetosphere, the particles are guided down the magnetic field lines of force and penetrate into the atmosphere near the north and south poles.

Solar Radiation Storms cause several impacts near Earth. When energetic protons collide with satellites or humans in space, they can penetrate deep into the object that they collide with and cause damage to electronic circuits or biological DNA. During the more extreme Solar Radiation Storms, passengers and crew in high flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risks. Also, when the energetic protons collide with the atmosphere, they ionize the atoms and molecules thus creating free electrons.

These electrons create a layer near the bottom of the ionosphere that can absorb High Frequency (HF) radio waves making radio communication in certain wavelengths (3-30 MHz communication, although fading and diminished reception may spill over to Very High Frequency (VHF) 30-300 MHz and higher frequencies) difficult or impossible.
Hartmann325

Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Later today or (more likely) tomorrow, a Coronal Mass Ejection, or a CME, will probably hit Earth's magnetic field. It's not a big CME. It's a little one. But the impact could be enough to spark minor geomagnetic storms and auroras at high latitudes on Aug. 27th.

See: https://spaceweather.com
 
  • Like
Reactions: Lariliss
Jul 29, 2021
84
4
55
Lariliss;

Always remain inquisitive...

View attachment 1465
Courtesy of: SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER; NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Solar radiation storms occur when a large-scale magnetic eruption, often causing a coronal mass ejection with an associated solar flare, accelerates charged particles in the solar atmosphere to very high velocities. The most important particles are protons which can get accelerated to large fractions of the speed of light. At these velocities, the protons can traverse the 150 million km from sun to Earth in just 10’s of minutes or less. When they reach Earth, the fast moving protons penetrate the magnetosphere that shields Earth from lower energy charged particles. Once inside the Earth's magnetosphere, the particles are guided down the magnetic field lines of force and penetrate into the atmosphere near the north and south poles.

Solar Radiation Storms cause several impacts near Earth. When energetic protons collide with satellites or humans in space, they can penetrate deep into the object that they collide with and cause damage to electronic circuits or biological DNA. During the more extreme Solar Radiation Storms, passengers and crew in high flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risks. Also, when the energetic protons collide with the atmosphere, they ionize the atoms and molecules thus creating free electrons.

These electrons create a layer near the bottom of the ionosphere that can absorb High Frequency (HF) radio waves making radio communication in certain wavelengths (3-30 MHz communication, although fading and diminished reception may spill over to Very High Frequency (VHF) 30-300 MHz and higher frequencies) difficult or impossible.
Hartmann325

Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Later today or (more likely) tomorrow, a Coronal Mass Ejection, or a CME, will probably hit Earth's magnetic field. It's not a big CME. It's a little one. But the impact could be enough to spark minor geomagnetic storms and auroras at high latitudes on Aug. 27th.

See: https://spaceweather.com
Thank you.
I have concentrated on the solar power solely in the previous post. Still, the solar storms have incredible and potentially vast hazardous impact (that is the concern). Like an asteroid, it might have serious damage impact or might not.. At least for latter in 75% probability people will not be there in the destruction zone. In case of solar storm, not much to be sure about human and technology pieces impact.
That's why Oulu's Sodankyla, SOHO, various space weather monitoring by research institutions, even stand about private companies monitoring impact is precious.
Whether or not they have enough cooperation, alarms will be received (having our current knowledge of the Sun activities cycles).
 
Sep 6, 2021
16
1
35
Lariliss, you are absolutely correct when you say that the sun, our closest star, has the greatest carbon neutral impact on our climate and our day.

There are only two carbon neutral energy sources, however, with extractable potentials exceeding 15 TW*: solar and wind. Though geothermal has significant theoretical potential, its extractable potential is much less because it is mostly in the form of “low-grade” heat, with low conversion efficiency into chemical fuel. Also, though ocean waves has significant theoretical potential, its extractable potential is much less because it is in the form of mechanical power, with low conversion efficiency into chemical fuel.

Finally, there is only one source with technical potential safely exceeding 15 TW: solar. Though wind has significant extractable potential, its technical potential is much less, in large part because much of its power resides geographically over the relatively inaccessible deep oceans. The same is true for solar, but because its extractable potential is so huge its land-based technical potential remains large.

Sunlight has by far the highest theoretical potential of the earth’s renewable energy sources.
The solar constant (the solar flux intercepted by the earth) is 1.37 kW/m . The cross-sectional
area of the earth intercepting this flux at any instant is πr2 (where r = 6,378 km is the earth’s
radius), but the surface area of the earth over which this flux is averaged over time is 4πr . Hence,
the time-and-space-averaged solar flux striking the outer atmosphere of the earth is (1.37 kW/m2)
/ 4 = 342.5 W/m . In addition, enroute to the earth’s surface, about 30% of this flux is scattered,
and about 19% is absorbed, by the atmosphere and clouds (Wallace 1977, pp. 320-321). Hence,
the average flux striking the earth’s surface is 342.5 W/m · (1-0.49) = 174.7 W/m2.

This theoretical potential represents more energy striking the earth’s surface in one and a half
hours (480 EJ)67 than worldwide energy consumption in the year 2001 from all sources combined
68 (430 EJ) .

* TerraWatt definition is - a unit of power equal to one trillion watts.
When I was a kid if a person was a radical environmentalist, this meant that among other things they were adamantly anti nuke, all nukes, warheads, power plants and microwaves. Now a person that is a radical environmentalist will not mention the colossal damage to the planet that nuclear power plants pose and do, because they emit no carbon. So if you are really sure that CO2 will cause the end of Earth than please stop using the carbon intensive internet and above all please stop adding CO2 to the Earth
 
Jul 29, 2021
84
4
55
Today, when the extremes are obvious with heat, tropic nights, fires, floods it is not possible to stop all the cars, plants, cut electricity consumption and go to dark and wait. Also, it is not possible to waste time only trying to tackle the blazes where it just appears.
1. Time to take international initiatives and leverage the situation in a cooperative, proactive and effective way.
High-level initiatives are in action. These actions need strong, modern technology based companies to get involved. One of the key features of success in space technology is the engagement of many countries and companies at the same time in order to have fast action due to the complexity of these projects.

2. Also on-earth adaptive learning and local information gathering and analysis for at least short-term reaction on local ecosystems survival implementation is proposed to be spotlighted.
Transformational ecology and climate change:
https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abj6777?et_rid=785235910&utm_campaign=toc_sci-mag_2021-09-02&af=R&et_cid=3906312

3. And new foundlings are there: African tropical mountain forests store far more carbon than previously thought – new research
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY