This post is about some Science and Geology things they don't teach you in a text book about Earth Science.
First of all, I believe in Man made global warming, and if anything I think it's actually worse than the current/most recent IPCC report suggests.
Obviously we shouldn't destroy the environment needlessly. Considering the dangers of Global Cooling events which have several times nearly driven humans extinct, I think the planet is in a GOOD place right now. If it got as cold as the "Year Without a Summer" Volcanic Winter from Tambora again, we'd probably have over a Billion humans starve to death. If it got as cold as the volcanic winter from the Great Toba Super Eruption again, about 99.99% of humans would die of starvation and exposure, and so would pretty much all other land-based life forms alive today, except maybe in equatorial South America and in South Africa anyway.
For example of disagreements with standard theory:
-I think total atmospheric warming and Sea Surface Temperature warming will be more than IPCC suggests. Some of the most recent super computer modeling suggests total atmospheric warming of 4.3C to 5.3C by 2100 vs pre-industrial average temperatures. Global average is currently only 0.9C above pre-industrial temperatures.
-I think Greenland and Antarctica will melt faster than IPCC suggests, and this also implies Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice will melt in about 20 years or less too. Even though the rate of melting of sea ice temporarily slowed after 2012, this is because 2007 and 2012 melts were accelerated by freak prevailing wind events. This didn't stop the trend, but it takes almost two decades for the long-term trend to catch up with this extremely low record melt event. So the trend will catch up around 2024, and then it will take a further 14 years for the trend to melt the remaining Arctic Sea Ice, so this implies the first ice-free September minimum for the Arctic will be the September of 2038. I have Greenland melting completely by 400 years from now, and west Antarctica melting completely in about the same amount of time.
-I believe a second "Main Development Region" will form during Atlantic hurricane season, which will cause western Europe to begin getting hit by Major Hurricanes in a few decades...it will be possible for Spain and Portugal to get hit by ~140mph Category 4 hurricanes in a few decades, because Ocean currents will change and warm the Eastern Atlantic that much, and atmospheric steering patterns will change enough to allow this path to happen. Their present building codes stand no chance at all against a fast-moving Category 4 hurricane's destructive winds.
-Prevailing theory is that Global Warming will increase wind shear, which will tear weaker hurricanes apart, but the strongest hurricanes will get even stronger. I partially disagree with this. I think ALL hurricanes will get stronger in the Atlantic basin anyway, not necessarily the Western Pacific. IN the Atlantic, I believe wind shear will go DOWN. Example, look at Venus, as the Greenhouse effect increases the wind shear actually goes down, because the difference in temperature between the equator and poles decreases, thus horizontal winds decrease. So again, for this reason, I think Indian Ocean, East Pacific, and entire Atlantic basin hurricanes get stronger. South Pacific Cyclones stay about the same either way, and West Pacific Typhoons actually get weaker with Global Warming due to increased wind shear. By the year 2100, I believe it will be possible for 250mph hurricane landfalls to happen in the Indian Ocean and the Western North Atlantic Ocean basins, and 200mph landfalls into Western Europe will be possible in the Eastern Atlantic basin.
All of that being said, some things simply are over-hyped.
-Corals are NOT threatened by man-made Global Warming nor man-made Ocean acidification; Neither are fish, algae, bacteria, diatoms, shellfish, nor arthropods. All of these organisms have survived warming events ten times worse than anything humans could cause, and they've survived acidification events a MILLION times worse than anything humans could cause. Coral Bleaching has been shown to be caused by a VIRUS which comes from continental Africa and rides on the Saharan Air Layer and is distributed around the planet. This research has been published for over 10 years now and was published in Arxiv and on Phys.org.
-Land plants produce only 4% of the Earth's oxygen budget, and a little known fact is land plants respire at night and consume all the oxygen they made during the day, and release Carbon Dioxide at night time. Algae don't produce much oxygen either. About 99.9% of the Oxygen in the Earth's atmosphere is "Fossil Oxygen" produced prior to the Carboniferous, during the "Great Oxidation Event"*, and the microbe responsible for producing this Oxygen went extinct at the end of the Carboniferous, which is why the Earth's average oxygen level has been decreasing ever since. Algae and Plants are not even net producers of Oxygen, they have a net zero oxygen budget and a net zero carbon budget, contrary to myth and contrary to the INCORRECT "Carbon Cycle" everyone was taught in High School and College biology course work.
*The Great Oxidation Event actually caused the REAL worst mass extinction in the planet's history, and killed 99.9% of all life forms that ever lived on Planet Earth, which used to eat Methane and Ammonia before the Oxygen and Nitrogen Atmosphere we have today was created by the Great Oxidation Event. Most of these life forms were single-celled microbes, Prokaryotes and Eukaryotes, and left very little fossil evidence other than the red oxidation stain in that layer of the rock strata.
-Because atmospheric temperature rises about 2 times faster over the interior of a continent than it does over the ocean, this means humans are more likely to drive themselves extinct before they drive even one aquatic species extinct, and even if we did drive ourselves extinct, the rest of the planet would recover in at most a few hundred thousand years, and humans wouldn't even be missed by the other life forms here.
For example, if we went extinct today, it would take about 50,000 years for the Carbon Cycle to recover from man-made CO2 already in the Atmosphere, and then CO2 would go back to next to nothing in the Atmosphere, and the Ice Age would start again, as CO2 from man-made burning of wood is actually what stopped the Ice Age last time. Without man-made CO2 in the Atmosphere, the Earth's average temperature would be about 50f colder, by the time you take both the First Order and Second Order feedbacks into consideration, less CO2 means more cold, more cold means more ice, more ice means higher Albedo, which means even more ice forms, and before you know it all the continents have 3 miles thick glaciers covering them again...Historically Global Cooling events, such as meteor impacts and super-volcanism, have killed more life forms on Earth than have Global Warming events.
You may wonder why it was so warm during the Carboniferous, but it actually has nothing to do with CO2. The Sun was 4% dimmer during the Carboniferous, so the planet would have been COLDER....except that the Earth's Radioactive core was about 4% hotter at that time, so then that balanced things out....neat huh? So the Sun was 4% cooler, the Earth was 4% hotter due to increased radioactivity, and there were no continents centered on the Poles so there was less ice, therefore the Earth reflected less sunlight, therefore the Earth was several degrees warmer all together, even though the Sun was again 4% dimmer.
-The Earth, Sun, and Universe are significantly OLDER than the Standard Model of Cosmology suggests, and I have two lines of real, calculable Scientific evidence, but that's for another thread and another day.
First of all, I believe in Man made global warming, and if anything I think it's actually worse than the current/most recent IPCC report suggests.
Obviously we shouldn't destroy the environment needlessly. Considering the dangers of Global Cooling events which have several times nearly driven humans extinct, I think the planet is in a GOOD place right now. If it got as cold as the "Year Without a Summer" Volcanic Winter from Tambora again, we'd probably have over a Billion humans starve to death. If it got as cold as the volcanic winter from the Great Toba Super Eruption again, about 99.99% of humans would die of starvation and exposure, and so would pretty much all other land-based life forms alive today, except maybe in equatorial South America and in South Africa anyway.
For example of disagreements with standard theory:
-I think total atmospheric warming and Sea Surface Temperature warming will be more than IPCC suggests. Some of the most recent super computer modeling suggests total atmospheric warming of 4.3C to 5.3C by 2100 vs pre-industrial average temperatures. Global average is currently only 0.9C above pre-industrial temperatures.
-I think Greenland and Antarctica will melt faster than IPCC suggests, and this also implies Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice will melt in about 20 years or less too. Even though the rate of melting of sea ice temporarily slowed after 2012, this is because 2007 and 2012 melts were accelerated by freak prevailing wind events. This didn't stop the trend, but it takes almost two decades for the long-term trend to catch up with this extremely low record melt event. So the trend will catch up around 2024, and then it will take a further 14 years for the trend to melt the remaining Arctic Sea Ice, so this implies the first ice-free September minimum for the Arctic will be the September of 2038. I have Greenland melting completely by 400 years from now, and west Antarctica melting completely in about the same amount of time.
-I believe a second "Main Development Region" will form during Atlantic hurricane season, which will cause western Europe to begin getting hit by Major Hurricanes in a few decades...it will be possible for Spain and Portugal to get hit by ~140mph Category 4 hurricanes in a few decades, because Ocean currents will change and warm the Eastern Atlantic that much, and atmospheric steering patterns will change enough to allow this path to happen. Their present building codes stand no chance at all against a fast-moving Category 4 hurricane's destructive winds.
-Prevailing theory is that Global Warming will increase wind shear, which will tear weaker hurricanes apart, but the strongest hurricanes will get even stronger. I partially disagree with this. I think ALL hurricanes will get stronger in the Atlantic basin anyway, not necessarily the Western Pacific. IN the Atlantic, I believe wind shear will go DOWN. Example, look at Venus, as the Greenhouse effect increases the wind shear actually goes down, because the difference in temperature between the equator and poles decreases, thus horizontal winds decrease. So again, for this reason, I think Indian Ocean, East Pacific, and entire Atlantic basin hurricanes get stronger. South Pacific Cyclones stay about the same either way, and West Pacific Typhoons actually get weaker with Global Warming due to increased wind shear. By the year 2100, I believe it will be possible for 250mph hurricane landfalls to happen in the Indian Ocean and the Western North Atlantic Ocean basins, and 200mph landfalls into Western Europe will be possible in the Eastern Atlantic basin.
All of that being said, some things simply are over-hyped.
-Corals are NOT threatened by man-made Global Warming nor man-made Ocean acidification; Neither are fish, algae, bacteria, diatoms, shellfish, nor arthropods. All of these organisms have survived warming events ten times worse than anything humans could cause, and they've survived acidification events a MILLION times worse than anything humans could cause. Coral Bleaching has been shown to be caused by a VIRUS which comes from continental Africa and rides on the Saharan Air Layer and is distributed around the planet. This research has been published for over 10 years now and was published in Arxiv and on Phys.org.
-Land plants produce only 4% of the Earth's oxygen budget, and a little known fact is land plants respire at night and consume all the oxygen they made during the day, and release Carbon Dioxide at night time. Algae don't produce much oxygen either. About 99.9% of the Oxygen in the Earth's atmosphere is "Fossil Oxygen" produced prior to the Carboniferous, during the "Great Oxidation Event"*, and the microbe responsible for producing this Oxygen went extinct at the end of the Carboniferous, which is why the Earth's average oxygen level has been decreasing ever since. Algae and Plants are not even net producers of Oxygen, they have a net zero oxygen budget and a net zero carbon budget, contrary to myth and contrary to the INCORRECT "Carbon Cycle" everyone was taught in High School and College biology course work.
*The Great Oxidation Event actually caused the REAL worst mass extinction in the planet's history, and killed 99.9% of all life forms that ever lived on Planet Earth, which used to eat Methane and Ammonia before the Oxygen and Nitrogen Atmosphere we have today was created by the Great Oxidation Event. Most of these life forms were single-celled microbes, Prokaryotes and Eukaryotes, and left very little fossil evidence other than the red oxidation stain in that layer of the rock strata.
-Because atmospheric temperature rises about 2 times faster over the interior of a continent than it does over the ocean, this means humans are more likely to drive themselves extinct before they drive even one aquatic species extinct, and even if we did drive ourselves extinct, the rest of the planet would recover in at most a few hundred thousand years, and humans wouldn't even be missed by the other life forms here.
For example, if we went extinct today, it would take about 50,000 years for the Carbon Cycle to recover from man-made CO2 already in the Atmosphere, and then CO2 would go back to next to nothing in the Atmosphere, and the Ice Age would start again, as CO2 from man-made burning of wood is actually what stopped the Ice Age last time. Without man-made CO2 in the Atmosphere, the Earth's average temperature would be about 50f colder, by the time you take both the First Order and Second Order feedbacks into consideration, less CO2 means more cold, more cold means more ice, more ice means higher Albedo, which means even more ice forms, and before you know it all the continents have 3 miles thick glaciers covering them again...Historically Global Cooling events, such as meteor impacts and super-volcanism, have killed more life forms on Earth than have Global Warming events.
You may wonder why it was so warm during the Carboniferous, but it actually has nothing to do with CO2. The Sun was 4% dimmer during the Carboniferous, so the planet would have been COLDER....except that the Earth's Radioactive core was about 4% hotter at that time, so then that balanced things out....neat huh? So the Sun was 4% cooler, the Earth was 4% hotter due to increased radioactivity, and there were no continents centered on the Poles so there was less ice, therefore the Earth reflected less sunlight, therefore the Earth was several degrees warmer all together, even though the Sun was again 4% dimmer.
-The Earth, Sun, and Universe are significantly OLDER than the Standard Model of Cosmology suggests, and I have two lines of real, calculable Scientific evidence, but that's for another thread and another day.
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