Knowledge of this pandemic only continues to shift and evolve over time. We will not get anything approaching accurate until it's all over, and that could be some time yet. Still, governments do need to use scientifically-based projection models rather than simply guessing, in order to prepare any sort of action.
A reminder to all that because this editorial piece touches on politics, we will allow on-topic political discussion, but no bashing, conspiracy theories or partisanship. Thank you all for keeping this a place for civil discourse!
Let's see what happens. The lastInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimate of 72,433 US COVID-19 deaths by early August will probably be reached by the end of day May 6th.
So, though I hope not, the 134,000 figure may even be low for early August.
The human race is a society. The idea that social distancing measures can mitigate the spread of the virus certainly has some merit but to what degree is it actually sustainable? International air travel has pretty much ceased to exist but it's a measure that is already four months behind the ball - as if we could contain the virus to a specific geographic area. That train has already left the station.
The problem with articles like this is that they are not complete. How many of those new cases will be asymptomatic or so mild that they will not even know they had it. What will be real mortality rate be when those cases are added to the data. The way the article was written is just another [effort] to try and protect the massive overreach of bureaucratic control.