How does the COVID-19 pandemic compare to the last pandemic?

Mar 20, 2020
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no, no, no...the math is incorrect. You cannot compare pandemics using estimates (H1N1) versus confirmed (COVID19). Reading and hearing scientists and health professional making these false comparisons drives me up the wall. The US had a confirmed H1N1 mortality rate of 2.98%. The US is currently running a confirmed COVID19 mortality rate of 1.49%, and that will continue to decrease as more confirmed testing is being done.
We were not more prepared than 2009. April 24, 2009 was not the first detection of the H1N1 in the US according to the CDC, it was in January 2009. I do not know where people are getting wrong information. If you scroll in CDC's analysis, April 2009 is used because of the two patients infected who were 130 miles apart. Health supplies to prevent and treat influenza were not released because the scientists said that COVID19 was not an influenza so, whereas H1N1 was believed to be an influenza. To argue releasing stuff that would not do or does not do any good is idiotic.
There was no mass testing for H1N1 PERIOD! That is why the Obama Administration did not use confirmed cases and mortality numbers. They used estimates.
The same people at CDC and NIH were around during 2009 H1N1. The funding and protocol to respond to new viral epidemics hadn't changed. The shortage of hospital beds, ventilators, and respirators hadn't changed. So why did the response protocol change?
The biggest factor in accepting and responding to H1N1 like a seasonal flu rather than focusing on and demanding mass testing for COVID19, is that in 2009 we were still in the death throws of 2008 economic crisis. The confirmed H1N1 had a higher mortality rate than COVID19 when you actually use confirmed cases. There was no way the global economy could have sustained the protocols we are implementing now in 2009. This is why there was no demand for mass H1N1 testing to get confirmed cases, and why H1N1 was accepted as going to have millions of infections and thousands of deaths compared to everyone demanding testing and confirmed cases for COVID19.
 
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Mar 20, 2020
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hanwagu can you explain what you mean by H1N1 confirmed mortality rate off 2.98%. The typical numbers listed are like .02? Where is the discrepancy? Thanks
 
Mar 20, 2020
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Are you suggesting that once the true denominator in the US is known the mortality rate will be similar to the flu like in Germany?
 
Mar 20, 2020
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Can you are someone show me the section where the CDC initially estimated the mortality rate as 2.98%. I looked and could not find it. Thanks
 
Mar 20, 2020
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So you are telling me that with COVID19 the CDC is only counting testing confirmed cases unlike H1N1? How are they calculating the fatality rates in Germany, Japan, or S Korea since they can't be testing everyone? I know they have widely available testing so are they making estimates from that data? Thanks
 
Mar 21, 2020
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I had the misfortune to get the 2009 swine flu and I can't remember it fully but I think that it made me very tired but it was similar to a bad common cold.however the major difference is we had the antiviral agent Tamiflu to use against the swine flu but it doesn't seem to work against corvid-19.i can't really say for sure if Tamiflu helped against my swine flu as perhaps it would have gone by itself anyhow but it felt like I was doing something to battle it.i suppose if you have any Tamiflu to hand,not the sort of stuff you are likely to have lying around!, and you get corvid-19 it's worth a try, better than praying!
 
Mar 28, 2020
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The first case in China was known in late November 2019. But they didn't tell anybody until late December or mid January when they released the gnome sequence. So the virus has been spreading throughout the world since November.

H1N1 started in Mexico and quickly spread to the United States so the CDC had samples quickly from which they could sequenced the genome
 
Mar 30, 2020
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I had the misfortune to get the 2009 swine flu and I can't remember it fully but I think that it made me very tired but it was similar to a bad common cold.however the major difference is we had the antiviral agent Tamiflu to use against the swine flu but it doesn't seem to work against corvid-19.i can't really say for sure if Tamiflu helped against my swine flu as perhaps it would have gone by itself anyhow but it felt like I was doing something to battle it.i suppose if you have any Tamiflu to hand,not the sort of stuff you are likely to have lying around!, and you get corvid-19 it's worth a try, better than praying!
I had a similar experience with the swine flu and taking Tamiflu to reduce the ailments. I was 48yo and a smoker. I had one day of feeling like I was dying. Hubby brought me Tamiflu after work at 5:30p. By the evening I was feeling much better. BUT, the cough nagged on for nearly 2 months. I had extra hydrated and went through several bottles of Tussin DM Cough Syrup, in which I took only when I needed it. I think that was mistake. I should have regimented it as a prescription... like I am now for this current gurgling cough I've been battling this week, at age 57. Nothing I've done has ceased it for more than a few hours and I am sleeping for a few hours here and there. I'm seeing my doctor for an antibiotic. I'm taking yogurt and probiotics besides flushing every hour. So, I'm definitely hydrated.
 
Mar 21, 2020
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I've had a persistent cough for over a year.a about a year and 2 months ago 4 lumps appeared on my finger,thumb and hand and it was misdiagnosed as a rare disease of sheep and goats called ORF at the same time a cough developed.sadly it turned out, after numerous painful biopsies, that the cause was much more sinister than ORF a rare cancer called mycosis fungoides which is the most common of the cutaneous t cell lymphomas.as a result as the lumps where actually cancerous tumours I lost my finger and my thumb is permanently damaged.be careful of mycosis fungoides as it is,as in my case since 2006 often misdiagnosed as ezecma or psoriasis losing you valuable time that could be spent trying to stop it's progress.at stages 1a to 2a it's regarded as indolent and perhaps 80 percent don't progress beyond 1a/b but by 2b,where I'm at,it is very serious and life threatening.
 
Apr 1, 2020
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The first case in China was known in late November 2019. But they didn't tell anybody until late December or mid January when they released the gnome sequence. So the virus has been spreading throughout the world since November.

H1N1 started in Mexico and quickly spread to the United States so the CDC had samples quickly from which they could sequenced the genome
That's not true in terms of H1N1. The virus was first reported in two U.S. children in March 2009, but health officials have reported that it apparently infected people as early as January 2009 in Mexico. The outbreak was first identified in Mexico City on 18 March 2009; immediately after the outbreak was officially announced, Mexico notified the U.S. and World Health Organization, and within days of the outbreak Mexico City was "effectively shut down".

Does this sound familiar? No doubt China should have been more transparent earlier on but it wasn't known that it was an outbreak until December. Compared that to the January to March time frames for H1N1 and you can see it's fairly similar.
 
Apr 7, 2020
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I'm having trouble making sense of the numbers discussed here. I understand the distinction made by hanwagu between estimated and confirmed cases. The numbers listed by Yaspar and BuckyJones seem to be estimates, which result in a very low death rate. Glenn Fugett lists a CDC publication, for reference. I'm having trouble finding the confirmed case numbers in that document. hanwagu says the US confirmed death rate for H1N1 was 2.98%. Like stuyoung99, I would like to see the numbers that yield that death rate. In reading the CDC article, in the Introduction on page S75, there are some confirmed numbers, but those are not for the entire period. Those numbers 302 / 43667 * 100 yield a 0.69% death rate, but that does not seem to cover the whole time frame. Where and what are the confirmed numbers that yield the 2.98% death rate? Thank you.
 
Apr 9, 2020
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AND the numbers are being over inflated by those who die because of other health reasons BUT they tested positive for the Covid-19 at the time of death.
 
Apr 10, 2020
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no, no, no...the math is incorrect. You cannot compare pandemics using estimates (H1N1) versus confirmed (COVID19). Reading and hearing scientists and health professional making these false comparisons drives me up the wall. The US had a confirmed H1N1 mortality rate of 2.98%. The US is currently running a confirmed COVID19 mortality rate of 1.49%, and that will continue to decrease as more confirmed testing is being done.
We were not more prepared than 2009. April 24, 2009 was not the first detection of the H1N1 in the US according to the CDC, it was in January 2009. I do not know where people are getting wrong information. If you scroll in CDC's analysis, April 2009 is used because of the two patients infected who were 130 miles apart. Health supplies to prevent and treat influenza were not released because the scientists said that COVID19 was not an influenza so, whereas H1N1 was believed to be an influenza. To argue releasing stuff that would not do or does not do any good is idiotic.
There was no mass testing for H1N1 PERIOD! That is why the Obama Administration did not use confirmed cases and mortality numbers. They used estimates.
The same people at CDC and NIH were around during 2009 H1N1. The funding and protocol to respond to new viral epidemics hadn't changed. The shortage of hospital beds, ventilators, and respirators hadn't changed. So why did the response protocol change?
The biggest factor in accepting and responding to H1N1 like a seasonal flu rather than focusing on and demanding mass testing for COVID19, is that in 2009 we were still in the death throws of 2008 economic crisis. The confirmed H1N1 had a higher mortality rate than COVID19 when you actually use confirmed cases. There was no way the global economy could have sustained the protocols we are implementing now in 2009. This is why there was no demand for mass H1N1 testing to get confirmed cases, and why H1N1 was accepted as going to have millions of infections and thousands of deaths compared to everyone demanding testing and confirmed cases for COVID19.
I cannot agree with you more. It is like everyone wants to make this into a situation much bigger than anything we have ever seen. I keep seeing articles with confirmed cases as the denominator for the mortality rate then comparing it to the flu which uses estimates. They estimate the number of cases to take into account the people that get it and do not have strong enough symptoms to get tested or see a doctor, to account for doctors that treat it like the flu without testing, and those that had it prior to everyone noticing it was there.

At this point, we know who is most at risk and the rest of us just need to go back to work before we break the economy. Why isn't anyone looking at the risk to healthy (no underlying medical issues) people between the age of 14 and 55. The risk is extremely small. Everyone in that group should go back to life as normal with the exception of dealing with family members that are at risk.
 
Apr 29, 2020
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I would like to know why the CDC a decade later does not have more specific stats on the amount of deaths from H1N1? They are vague about everything it seems. When looking at their site they are non-committal about anything health-related when it comes to defined numbers. In this article it says "between 151,700 and 575,400" deaths from H1N1. A decade later they should be able to have a more defined number.
 

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