How deadly is the new coronavirus? Data from the spread of US cases could help answer that.

Mar 3, 2020
2
0
10
I don't understand why everyone is overlooking the diamond princess data! It was a rare opportunity to test everyone potentially infected in a community. By looking at the stats we get a clear picture that roughly half of cases have no symptoms.
 
Last edited:
Feb 28, 2020
12
4
35
It kills 2% and is unstoppable. Eventually, we will all become immune to it either through infection or vaccination.
 
Mar 9, 2020
6
2
35
It kills 2% and is unstoppable. Eventually, we will all become immune to it either through infection or vaccination.
Let's hope so but that's only a maybe at this time since there's a possibility that those who have recovered have become infected again. So immunity may not be a sure thing. Then there's the possibility of the disease mutating.
 
Apr 23, 2020
19
4
35
Get this video to the President! Serological antibody testing done by Stanford researchers in Santa Clara County, CA prove Covid-19 has a similar death rate to the flu! We've been lied to and mislead by numbers from the government of the country from which the virus came from. Dr. F got it wrong and we shut down the whole economy for the Flu!

View: https://youtu.be/k7v2F3usNVA
Should be very careful using Stanford's data on Santa Clara residents. It has not been peer reviewed and has some serious problems about sampling. People were recruited using Facebook Ad. People wanting to know their status are more motivated to volunteer. Self-selection is a problem. But is no way a random testing. Only people active on Facebook would have participated. This is not a good slice across a population. Lastly, I see no evidence that researcher ascertained whether multiple participants may have come from same household (family, roommates, etc.) If multiple samples from same household, more likely to get infected and make incidence much higher.

Data just reported from NYC from antibody testing indicates that percent of population is 12%-18%. This is significantly lower than Stanford study.
 
Last edited:
Apr 17, 2020
11
2
35
When comparing this to the flu, it depends on what you are comparing to.

From the best I can tell (maybe someone can set me straight) the flu is not always diagnosed strictly on a positive flu test. You can walk into a doctor's office, present with flu like symptoms in the middle of flu season, and the doctor may diagnose it as flu without a test.

The CDC uses some type of formula to determine how many people actually have the flu - or at least that's how I view it.


In the 2018-2019 season the 35,520,883 number doesn't necessarily mean that 35,520,883 people were tested for the flu and came back as positive. I'm not sure if the 16,520,350 number is positive flu tests. The 490,561 hospitalizations are probably true positive flu tests, or at least I'd come nearer to believe that all of those tested positive for the flu. But there were definitely more than 490,561 that would have tested positive for the flu. But how many? We don't know.

Until you know the number of positive flu tests and how many of that subset died you really can't compare it to the number of positive covid-19 test and how many of that subset died.

Either way, covid-19 has already killed more than the 34,157 the flu killed in 2018-2019. And then consider, that 34,157 number you are using is probably a lot smaller, because you can really only count deaths that came from real positive flu tests.

The only thing you can really compare it to is the mortality rate - number of deaths out of an entire population.

Flu: 34,157 deaths out of 320,000,000 people is a mortality rate of 0.0107%
Covid-19: 49,963 deaths out of 320,000,000 people is a mortality rate of 0.0156%

That might not seem like a lot, but it is more. And it will continue to grow. Is it more than the flu? Yes. Worth the panic? That's debatable.

You also have to consider that there's no vaccine for covid-19, but there is for the flu. The flu has been around for years... Covid-19 is new, so this means that the human body just hasn't seen anything like Covid-19 to base any semblance of an immune response from. So, knowing that, we knew Covid-19 was going to kill more people than the flu. If Covid-19 winds up killing 70,000 to 90,000 people I'm not sure if that is all that unexpected.

And as I've stated several times. The numbers in New York City are way out in left field and really threw the models for a loop. I think there's definitely something going on in New York City (and to some extent the whole New England region) that is spreading this virus for than in other areas of the country. If the number of deaths in New York City had stuck to what was happening throughout the rest of the country, then that would probably be about 10,000 fewer deaths. Obviously that didn't happen in New York City, but it's worth microscoping some of the numbers coming out of New York City and when all is said and done a study probably needs to be done to figure out what happened in New York City with this virus to help prevent that from happening again.
 
Apr 23, 2020
19
4
35
You also have to consider that there's no vaccine for covid-19, but there is for the flu. The flu has been around for years...
Unfortunately, less than half of those over 65 get flu vaccine as recommended in USA and far fewer adults under 65. The CDC mixes a concoction of various strains they predict will be active each flu season. Last 10 years, the effectiveness has been less than 50% most years

Deaths each years in USA vary quite a bit. CDC has strong surveillance of flu but deaths are only counted if Influenza is recorded on death certificate. The lowest number of deaths was 2011-2012 season with just 12,000 with vaccine 47% effective. Highest number of death was 2017-2018 season with 61,000 with vaccine effectiveness just 38%.

So with less than 50% people vaccinated and effectiveness of vaccine less than 50%, flu would appear to not be serious at all if looking just at deaths. However, CDC also estimates burden of flu which includes days lost from work for people sick, etc. Vaccination seems to lessen the overall burden on society even with low effectiveness.

 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS