Question Herd Immunity? A few million might die, and millions more damaged for life. Is it worth it for America?!

Page 3 - For the science geek in everyone, Live Science breaks down the stories behind the most interesting news and photos on the Internet.

Gringoz

BANNED
Oct 3, 2020
79
3
55
There are recent reports in the news of an increasing interest in simply allowing the COVID-19 disease to run its course, unfettered from now on, while trying to protect the most susceptible people from catching it (if they have not already). Current efforts by some, inadvertent or intentional, tend to suggest that this is playing out right now. The impact of such a policy is much less costly to the economy, etc. which, some think, would rid us of the virus so that the survivors can "move on". This approach is known as Herd Immunity (1).

There are several reasons why this may not be a good idea. It will certainly result in many additional fatalities and morbidities, and by at least an order of magnitude. Most Americans likely would not find this acceptable. However. despite being In the majority, they currently have no means to alter the course of decisions, whoever is making them. Unfettered spread of the virus may also increases the possibility for more infective and lethal strains to develop (2). We must recall that the original SARs and the related MERS viruses had 10% and 30% fatality rates, respectively.

The greater the spread of the pandemic, the larger the number of viral replications and resultant mutations, any one of which may make the virus more infective, and/or more lethal. It could also work the other way around, perhaps resulting in a less lethal strain developing, and being less infective. It is unknown what mutations will arise in the future, but those advocating Herd Immunity are hoping that it will become less infective and less lethal. To most experts in medicine, "hope" is not a sound strategy for dealing with a lethal, infectious disease of as yet unknown "capabilities".

As of mid-July, a careful analysis (2) of existing data indicates that at least 65% of people would need to be infected (and likely higher) to attain Herd Immunity. Fatalities would reach over 2 million, with millions more suffering life-long morbidity - debilitating conditions from stroke, heart and vascular damage, kidney damage, etc.

The number of mutations would be vastly higher if it were allowed to infect and replicate freely. A direct quote from (2) summing things up regarding unfettered replication of this virus is below. Keep in mind that these results are from a pandemic largely contained at this time.

"More than 8000 observed single mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genomes have raised serious concerns about changes in infectivity. Qualitatively, such infectivity is proportional to the binding affinity between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein (S protein) and host ACE2 receptor. This work proposes a machine learning model to evaluate the relative infectivity following the mutations. We show that five out of six SARS-CoV-2 substrains have become more infectious, while the other one becomes less infectious. We found that a few potential future mutations on the S protein could lead to more dangerous new viruses."

end quote

Should the country continue trying to minimize the pandemic, treating it as a serious current and future threat, or simply let it run its course, hoping that things just get better?


(1) https://www.livescience.com/herd-immunity.html


"Mutations Strengthened SARS-CoV-2 Infectivity" (Michigan State University)

(2) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7375973/
My whole family had covid, no one was sick or is dead, herd immunity is the only answer, or do you want to wear a mask for the rest of your life damaging everyone's lungs
 
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
My whole family had covid, no one was sick or is dead
You are fortunate. Sadly, there are millions of people who cannot make that claim. Millions can tell you they have lost a father, or mother, or brother, or sister, or uncle, or aunt, or cousin, or nephew, or niece, or grandfather or grandmother, or even their own child. You are very fortunate.

Fortunately the rest of the world, which is mostly led by rational people (regarding the pandemic at least) are enforcing mitigation measure like stay-at-home, distancing, and masks. Billions of people are under such orders all over the world. And you are suggesting it is all for no good reason. Some would certainly doubt that assessment. Billions of them, actually.

The only logical reason for this is that the experts tell us that it is important to stamp out the virus ASAP. Experts look at the big picture, not what happened to their family and apply it to the rest of the world.

As a final note, America has around 4% of the global population but about 20% of the deaths. How does that make herd immunity look so appealing? Had there been a national plan in place, we would have had far fewer deaths, and in better control of the virus. Fortunate people like you find it easy to accept herd immunity. Those who have lost or are losing family members and friends do not, and will not accept it.

Fortunately, most of the people running things do not agree with herd immunity. Masks and social distancing where appropriate until a vaccine is available is mandatory in most places. This is not forever. It is until a viable vaccine is developed.
 

Gringoz

BANNED
Oct 3, 2020
79
3
55
You are fortunate. Sadly, there are millions of people who cannot make that claim. Millions can tell you they have lost a father, or mother, or brother, or sister, or uncle, or aunt, or cousin, or nephew, or niece, or grandfather or grandmother, or even their own child. You are very fortunate.

Fortunately the rest of the world, which is mostly led by rational people (regarding the pandemic at least) are enforcing mitigation measure like stay-at-home, distancing, and masks. Billions of people are under such orders all over the world. And you are suggesting it is all for no good reason. Some would certainly doubt that assessment. Billions of them, actually.

The only logical reason for this is that the experts tell us that it is important to stamp out the virus ASAP. Experts look at the big picture, not what happened to their family and apply it to the rest of the world.

As a final note, America has around 4% of the global population but about 20% of the deaths. How does that make herd immunity look so appealing? Had there been a national plan in place, we would have had far fewer deaths, and in better control of the virus. Fortunate people like you find it easy to accept herd immunity. Those who have lost or are losing family members and friends do not, and will not accept it.

Fortunately, most of the people running things do not agree with herd immunity. Masks and social distancing where appropriate until a vaccine is available is mandatory in most places. This is not forever. It is until a viable vaccine is developed.
1300 people die each and every day from the effects of tobacco, but the government could care less because they pay their tobacco taxes while they live short of breath sad lives
 
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
1300 people die each and every day from the effects of tobacco, but the government could care less because they pay their tobacco taxes while they live short of breath sad lives
Actually the government cares a great deal! They have banned tobacco ads for years just about everywhere, raised the cost of tobacco products and cracked down on all sorts of work-arounds by tobacco sellers to make it harder for people to start and continue its use.

There are far fewer people using tobacco today because of government efforts to inform them of the risks.
 

Gringoz

BANNED
Oct 3, 2020
79
3
55
Actually the government cares a great deal! They have banned tobacco ads for years just about everywhere, raised the cost of tobacco products and cracked down on all sorts of work-arounds by tobacco sellers to make it harder for people to start and continue its use.

There are far fewer people using tobacco today because of government efforts to inform them of the risks.
LOL 1300 people die every day from tobacco with or without ads, more people have died from tobacco than will ever die of covid 12.................... Covid 19 was really discovered in 2012 as a result of a miners sickness in a bat infested mine 1000 miles from Wuhan. The government has to hide this because this means the chinese had more than 6 years to weaponize it


But you believe the government who never lies to the people.
 
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
But you believe the government who never lies to the people.
Never said they did not lie. They lie all the time.

The issue was about tobacco and dangers to the general welfare of the people. About that they did not lie.

As to the Chinese, I would not suppose to know what they are doing, except that it is not in America's best interest.
 

Gringoz

BANNED
Oct 3, 2020
79
3
55
Never said they did not lie. They lie all the time.

The issue was about tobacco and dangers to the general welfare of the people. About that they did not lie.

As to the Chinese, I would not suppose to know what they are doing, except that it is not in America's best interest.
LOL, OK you said something logical which is that the government lies all the time. Since you know that and are correct, why would you accept anything the government says? If they lie all the time, nothing is the truth.

I find it humorous because everyone knows the government lies, yet they believe like gullible zombie ants
 
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
If they lie all the time, nothing is the truth.
They can lie all the time, but that does not mean everything they say is a lie.

When they say things I know to be true from my knowledge, that is not a lie. But I know from experience that they lie all the time for many reasons, some good, some bad.

At least we can agree on something - the government does lie to us!
 

Gringoz

BANNED
Oct 3, 2020
79
3
55
They can lie all the time, but that does not mean everything they say is a lie.

When they say things I know to be true from my knowledge, that is not a lie. But I know from experience that they lie all the time for many reasons, some good, some bad.

At least we can agree on something - the government does lie to us!
LOL the government said that there is no need to wear a mask..................................

So if a mask is needed then the government was clearly wanting or needing more people infected

Zombie ants believe
 
Jul 24, 2020
20
4
35
LOL 1300 people die every day from tobacco with or without ads, more people have died from tobacco than will ever die of covid 12.................... Covid 19 was really discovered in 2012 as a result of a miners sickness in a bat infested mine 1000 miles from Wuhan. The government has to hide this because this means the chinese had more than 6 years to weaponize it


But you believe the government who never lies to the people.
If the Wuhan Institute of Virology had confirmed the tissue samples in 2012 as a new sars-like coronavirus, they would have sequenced and released it. Sars-cov-2 was termed a novel coronavirus as it did not have a high match with the genetic sequence of any known coronavirus. Further, you should provide evidence to support your claim that the virus was 'weaponised'. I dont believe that such a claim withstands examination of the sequence.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chem721
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
If the Wuhan Institute of Virology had confirmed the tissue samples in 2012 as a new sars-like coronavirus, they would have sequenced and released it.
Many experts would be inclined to agree with this.

The Chinese have published many scientific articles about such viruses over the last 10 years or so, until the latest one showed up. Last I heard they are no longer allowed to publish anything about viruses, except this latest one, and only limited data at that.
 
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
Why would any country release their weapon to the enemy?
Suggesting that the Chinese weaponized a virus, which then threatened their own country by careless handling. is not an easy sell. Well, not to most people.

Why would such a country be so stupid as to weaponize such a contagious virus when they know it is coming back to them, one way or another?! It has gone all over the world - China would never have escaped infection, which is also wrecking havoc on its economy and people.

It is like a doomsday machine. You do NOT use such a weapon except in dire conditions, which no one claims for China.

This is simply not rational.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PseudaFed
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
The fact remains that China banned flights out of Wuhan to other Chinese cities but allowed them to continue to the rest of the World.
There are not many people outside of China who will argue with the fact that they handled this very badly and are entirely responsible for this entire problem.

Could not agree with you more.
 
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
Sadly the impact is on all of us, when they should have stopped in China.

Let's hope that we can contain it with a vaccine etc. It remains possible that another virus is waiting down the line to break out.
 
Jul 24, 2020
20
4
35
It was not in Wuhan in 2012, in 2012 there were miners infected in a mine 1000 miles away from Wuhan. It was immediately reported as coming from a bat sold at the Wuhan market which was discounted because the type of bat does not live near Wuhan supporting the mine account. The fact is that this will be covered up as the account of this woman already is.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny-zkRZeW_w


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J4aEcuEGWs
The nypost article you linked describes that the doctor who treated the miners in 2012 sent tissue samples to the WIV, and the allegation is that the virus escaped thereafter. The account of the woman above and the article she wrote was discredited and so shouldnt be relied upon as any kind of verification for a lab escape theory. Such claims were examined and dismissed with scientific explanation in published literature early on in the pandemic. To continue to espouse them without supporting evidence is just unhelpful and only really serves political agendas.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chem721
Jul 27, 2020
201
23
105
It would appear that we may be going with herd immunity unless something happens in the next few months to change the strategy.

Forbes (1) presents this breaking news in a remarkably fact and science based article. It is not for the faint of heart. Some have referred to this proposal as the "Let People Die" approach.

The Forbes article provides 8 good reasons NOT to allow herd immunity :

1. Many deaths will occur.
2. Suffering and long term health problems will occur.
3. This could overwhelm a broken health care system.
4. It’s not clear how long immunity may last.
5. How do you define vulnerable people?
6. How do you identify who is vulnerable?
7. How would you actually protect the vulnerable?
8. This could distract and distract from other possible strategies.


ref. 1 :


The "Great Barrington Declaration" is defined in quotes from the Wiki link below, with critical notions about its practicality.(2). It is largely rejected by health experts around the world, which is not surprising if one is an expert of such matters.

From (2):

Pro-

"The declaration advocates that individuals at high risk of death from infection should continue staying at home, and that people at low risk resume their normal lives, by working away from home and attending mass gatherings. They hope that as a result most of these lower-risk people will contract the infection but not die, and that the resulting immune response will prevent the SARS-CoV-2 virus from spreading to higher-risk people. The declaration makes no mention of social distancing, masks, contact tracing, nor of COVID-19 testing."

Con-

Critics of the declaration's recommendations, including academics and the World Health Organization, have stated the proposed strategy is dangerous and unworkable and that it would be impossible to shield those who are medically vulnerable, and that the herd immunity component of the strategy is undermined by the limited duration of post-infection immunity." (emphasis mine)

It goes on to note :

It [The "Great Barrington Declaration] was sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarian think tank associated with climate change denial and the Koch Foundation."

end quotes

Reading through Forbes' 8 reasons NOT to accept herd immunity would have most people wondering about the wisdom of such an approach. It also brings into question the "wisdom" and true reasons behind its supporters.

It is instructive to realize that over 1 million people world-wide have died from this virus as of mid-October, and that is after considerable mitigation efforts in most places. It is a certainty that millions more will die with the "Herd Immunity" approach, and many millions more with long-lasting disabilities.

For the full Wiki article:

Ref. 2 :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration
 
Last edited:

ASK THE COMMUNITY