Question Has this been the hottest winter yet?

Feb 3, 2020
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I'm from Israel and usually where I live it can go down to about 7-8 degrees on an average night but this year it has rarely gone under 10 or 11. I'm supposed to go to Poland in a month so I occasionally look at the weather but instead of -5 it's hovering around 0, mostly above. Sometimes I see the forecast for Moscow in my daily newspaper and it's usually around 0 or in the single negative digits, not -10 like you would expect. Maybe I just have confirmation bias, but does anyone have statistics about this?tweakbox appvalley https://vlc.onl/
 
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Dec 12, 2019
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Hottest? Maybe. What it has been is the most thermally energetic winter in recent record. Heat is like fuel for the Climate-engine and we've switched from regular to high-test with the increase in atmospheric heating that's happening now. That means that yes, this winter was "Hotter" than the previous one, but that heat isn't manifested in hot weather but in the degree of heat-fueled severity of the last winter. Here in California, it's been colder than usual and wetter, all caused by "Heat" driving the Climate-engine to wilder and more extreme swings. So yes, last winter was "Hotter" which made it Colder and Wetter hereabouts. Heat is the fuel and we've got too much of it.
 
Jan 27, 2020
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From a high temperature determined by paleontologists and geologists to be some 50 million years ago to the present time (see the attached graph), the Earth has been in a long term cooling trend.
Not so long ago, with the U.S. cooling about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit between 1945 and 1975, The New York Times and other major news publications began to headline certain “experts”, like early climate modeler Reid Barrett, stating that a new ice age was upon us.
Suddenly, we are warming up!
Yes, the global climate has been warming in fits and starts since the last “little ice age” (not a true ice age; however, in New England 1816 was remembered as the year without a summer) ended about 200 years ago. Apart from entirely natural 1998 and 2015 Pacific Ocean El Nino temperature spikes, satellite and weather balloon measurements show no statistically-significant overall global warming for nearly two decades.
There is one major influence on Earth's weather beyond aerosols, carbon dioxide, methane, and the other ingredients in the witches brew which is our atmosphere, and that is our nearest star, the sun. The slightest decrease or increase in output from jolly old Mr. Sun will have decided impacts on us all.
Because geologic time is so vast and our ability to judge time and our lifetimes are so limited, we find it hard to grasp the possibility that a few years of an apparent warming trend may only be a statistical anomaly on a steady downward trend in temperature. global surface temp earth .png
 

LCarlson

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Nov 12, 2019
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In British Columbia, Canada, we just had the coldest January in 30 years. The climate is certainly volatile and variable around the globe.
 
Jan 1, 2020
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It is about 3 F degrees cooler today than it was 115,000-130,000 years ago during the last interglacial, the period between glacial periods commonly known as "ice ages", called the Eemian Period. The treeline went all the way up to the Arctic Circle during that time. We have been in the Quaternary Glaciation, a long-term ice age for 2.6 million years.

https://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/news/news13/greenland-ice-cores-reveal-warm-climate-of-the-past/


 
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^____^

Right, why temperature ain't THE thing to pay attention. The world ain't someone's rod or box gettin hot.....more like their whimsical hearts, but easier to regulate, but for the latter.....
 
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Aug 2, 2020
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The problem isn't the average temperature; it's the rapid change in average temperature that is creating the problems. When you look at graphs like the one at the near of the page--which is absolutely correct according to current paleoclimatic understanding--you lose track of the fact that the temperature changes illustrated occurred over time spans of tens of thousands of years. A 5 degree C increase in worldwide average temperatures over ten thousand years is no big deal, but a similar increase over 200 years creates a lot of disruption in weather and rainfall patterns. Even this, while inconvenient, would not be too big a deal if humans were still migratory--we'd just move from areas that had dried up to new areas with more rainfall. But because we are sedentary and have things like property lines and national boundaries, many people will be confined to areas that can no longer support them.

This is what many people fail to understand. When we attempt to reduce therate of climate change, we are not saving the planet--the planet couldn't care less how much CO2 we belch into the atmosphere--we are saving our comfortable, Western lifestyles. Americans (like me) in particular live in absolute terror of being inconvenienced or made uncomfortable. Well, if the desert belts move northward into America's bread basket, we will be very inconvenienced.
 
Dec 12, 2019
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Since heat "fuels" the climate, and since the Earth is warming up at an unprecedented rate, we can honestly say "Yes this is going to be the hottest/coldest winter within recent memory. Why hotter/colder? Heat is the fuel the atmospheric climate engine runs on, thus as the amount of heat (fuel) has increased, the effects of that increase will be both hotter and colder weather due to an overall increase in heat.
So the answer is both yes and no. It will be hotter and colder than before with both wetter and dryer systems being run at breakneck speeds by an overcharged climate engine.
 

Finch

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Nov 22, 2020
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I'm from Israel and usually where I live it can go down to about 7-8 degrees on an average night but this year it has rarely gone under 10 or 11. I'm supposed to go to Poland in a month so I occasionally look at the weather but instead of -5 it's hovering around 0, mostly above. Sometimes I see the forecast for Moscow in my daily newspaper and it's usually around 0 or in the single negative digits, not -10 like you would expect. Maybe I just have confirmation bias, but does anyone have statistics about this?tweakbox appvalley https://vlc.onl/
No way to know because 99.999 percent of Earth winters were not recorded in any way
 
Aug 2, 2020
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Many people think that a new record low temperature is proof that global warming/climate change is a hoax. But if temperature fluctuation is random, then you would expect to have about as many record lows as record highs. When the ratio of record highs to record lows gets up to around 60:40 or 2:1, that's some pretty solid evidence that average temperatures are on the rise, despite the occasional record low.
 

Finch

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Nov 22, 2020
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Many people think that a new record low temperature is proof that global warming/climate change is a hoax. But if temperature fluctuation is random, then you would expect to have about as many record lows as record highs. When the ratio of record highs to record lows gets up to around 60:40 or 2:1, that's some pretty solid evidence that average temperatures are on the rise, despite the occasional record low.
Actually not........................
 

Finch

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Nov 22, 2020
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Could you explain?
The glacial maximum ended because the average temperature went up allowing glaciation to melt significantly during the Summer instead of merely having Summer be the season with no snow. So since it has been warming for 20000 years climate change is both real and natural. Nothing you can do to change the past no matter how much you stomp your feet

LOL and no everyone does not agree, just in America 71,000,000 people voted for Trump because he ended the Paris ripoff
 
Aug 2, 2020
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Yes, it was a combination of summer melt and reduced winter growth.
But if you set two record highs for every record low, then mathematically, the average goes up.
 

Finch

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Nov 22, 2020
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Yes, it was a combination of summer melt and reduced winter growth.
But if you set two record highs for every record low, then mathematically, the average goes up.
LOL the fact is that the temperatures have been rising dramatically for 20000 years, with minor oscillations.

The fact is that glaciers fall, cleave and crack when they get too massive to support their own weight near the ocean, NOT when it gets warmer. Also as glaciers fall into the ocean new snow is being deposited on the remaining area balancing things out.

Honist Amos
 

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