Evidence that the virus is losing

Mar 21, 2020
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Examining the data for each county shows that the number of infections and the number of deaths is no longer growing exponentially for most countries.

To do this, look at the logarithm of the number of deaths vs time. It is clear that the exponential phases are over in most countries.

For example, Italy is below.

Go ahead and repeat it for Italy, Spain, China, Iran and France and you will see the same pattern. The total deaths are leveling off. I am not going to post all of them because that would be too many images, but all the ones I have looked at do look like this. Apart from USA, which is still exponential at this time.


1585453489615.png

So it looks like only around 10K people will die in Italy of "coronavirus". But Italy is supposed to be the worse hit, where it is absolute hell and they can't even dispose of the bodies because never in history has this number of people ever died before... blah blah blah.... oh, apart from a couple of years ago when 25,000 people died from the seasonal flu and Italy did not shut down anything, in fact it was not even reported as a big thing on the news in my country!

Given that we do not know whether these 10K people actually died from a fatal viral load of SARS-nCoV-2 or from something else, and given that last flu season had 25,000 deaths in Italy from the flu... I leave you all to draw your own conclusions.
 
Apr 2, 2020
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When the axis is logarithmic, any positive angle represents exponential growth. What is most important is the derivative of the function which reveals the rate of change of the exponential growth. It is encouraging that the rate of change of exponential increase is slowly decreasing. With that said, the exponential growth is still occurring.

Look at the following data showing (US Deaths) to see the rate of change decreasing:

152​
137.50%​
209​
131.10%​
274​
126.64%​
347​
134.29%​
466​
127.68%​
595​
134.45%​
800​
132.25%​
1058​
124.10%​
1313​
130.85%​
1718​
128.29%​
2204​
117.06%​
2,580​
123.57%​
3,188​
128.07%​
4,083​
126.06%​
 

SHaines

Administrator
Staff member
Nov 12, 2019
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With the coronavirus being an ever present concern all around the world, people are being much better about following guidelines to slow transmission, which has the added benefit of letting pockets where the virus has reached high levels start to reduce as more and more people come out of the other side of the illness.

If people keep listening to experts and remain committed to following best practices, we're likely to see improvements continue. There is no way to completely predict how things will play out, but there is ample reason for people to remain hopeful.

Nothing beats trusting the experts and following their advice. It's not that every piece of information by every expert will always prove to be 100% true, just that experts get to be experts by years of study and a lot of first hand experience in handling similar issues.
 
Apr 2, 2020
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Yes, there are many experts and they seem to have conflicting viewpoints. Everyone of us must think for ourselves.

For instance, experts in disease control (CDC) have in mentioned that masks are not recommended as they don't stop the spread of the virus. Yet scientific results, peer-reviewed and published at NCBI, US National Institute of Health say otherwise.


I personally trust the scientists and the logic that its better safe than sorry. Other nations which were hit with SARS years ago are wearing masks. Go figure!

But it really doesn't stop there. There is so much blindly regurgitated information, in fact 99% of it is regurgitated, skewed or unfounded! Let's look at a few more points here:

What is the real death rate? Every single expert source (except myself) agree that the death rate is:
(the number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying (~2-3.6%)

Yet if you just stop and think about it for a little while you will realize how wrong this logic is!
Much more accurate and logical is:
(the number of deaths/closed cases)= probability of dying (please think about this until you understand clearly).

Using the latter formula you will see an accurate representation of the experienced death rate per each country. This representation is able to much more correctly present the number of future deaths.
USAavg test/posclosed casestotal deathstotal recoveries% death rate% recovered
--​
11181​
4083​
7098​
37%​
63%​

It was apparent to me (but seemingly nobody else) in early March that China had given the world false data. Yet every source still pools in the China data for the world total percentages. Of course this greatly skewed the data! As data from other countries increases, the predicted numbers are moving up, since the China data is a smaller percentage of the overall data. An easy way to remove the skew is to subtract out the China data.
Yet it has only been in the last few days that many are starting to realize this.

People, think for yourselves!

The spread of wrong information by experts doesn't stop there! Let's examine some more important points of dis-information. Please note that this is not an attack upon individuals or institutions, but rather evidence to reveal the degree of misinformation!

In a statement released by the experts at the FDA:
"Silver has never been shown to be effective against any disease"

Yet lets examine what scientific results show in peer-reviewed papers at the NCBI US National Institute of Health Library.

You can find a collection of such documentation here:

Once again, the statements and advice of experts is not always well founded and sometimes it is completely wrong. Although the misinformation may be unintended, that does not make it not harmful. It's eye opening that so much information is in disagreement with thousands of documents by accredited scientists!

It doesn't stop there either, but I have made my point.

People, you are being misinformed and this is as clear as the conflicting viewpoints being given by experts.

If you do the research you will see this!
 
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